588
FXUS64 KEWX 160511
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1211 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION (06Z TAFS)
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND HIGH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED AT TIMES.
- DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH ELEVATED HEAT INDICES
FROM THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK TO EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
A SLOW MOVING FRONT AND INCREASED TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINATION IS
FORECAST TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS FOR THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND
COASTAL PLAINS BETWEEN MID MORNING TO MID TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH 7 PM CDT TUESDAY. THE FLOOD WATCH WAS
CANCELED FOR THE HILL COUNTRY, PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
INCLUDING THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO METRO AREAS, AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AS THE PROJECTED HEAVY RAINFALL IS TO FALL TO THE
SOUTH OF THESE LOCATIONS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA. WITH RAIN RATES OF 2 TO
3 INCHES PER HOUR WITH A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL TAKE A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME FOR FLOODING TO OCCUR. STAY WEATHER AWARE AND
AWAY FROM POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY
TUESDAY, HOWEVER, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST
BETWEEN THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND THE COASTAL PLAINS LIKELY KEEP
THE HEAVY RAINFALL BETWEEN THOSE AREAS. THEREFORE, THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIFE THREATENING FLOODING ACROSS THE FLOOD WATCH AREA
CONTINUES. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED HIGH
MOISTURE LEVELS PUSH TO THE EAST TEXAS COAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
AREA WITH DRY AIRMASS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SETUP
BRINGS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND 90S AND EVEN 100-104 DEGREES
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ELEVATED HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME
LOCATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS COULD GET A SHOWER OR TWO
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE MOVES TO THE NORTH. RAIN
CHANCES DO RETURN ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES FROM THE COASTAL
PLAINS INTO OUR AREA AND ANOTHER BOUNDARY PUSHES FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS INTO THE HILL COUNTRY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
THE FORECAST IS A BIT LESS TRICKY THAN IT WAS LAST NIGHT AT THIS
TIME. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ON TIMING OF ANY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WILL UTILIZE PROB30 GROUPS FROM
15Z-00Z TO ACCOUNT FOR 30-40% POPS AT AUS, SAT, AND SSF. DRT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS AND IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOP QUICKLY AFTER 07Z AT AUS, SAT, AND SSF. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL
DESPITE LOWER VIS SHOWN IN LAMP GUIDANCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 88 74 92 77 / 50 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 87 74 91 77 / 50 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 86 72 91 75 / 50 10 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 87 72 92 76 / 10 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 93 74 97 78 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 87 73 91 76 / 30 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 87 72 92 76 / 30 10 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 86 73 91 76 / 50 10 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 84 74 89 77 / 70 10 20 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 86 74 91 77 / 40 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 86 73 91 77 / 60 10 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ193-194-207>209-217>225-
228.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...MMM
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