115
FXUS64 KEWX 161743
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1243 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND HIGH
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED AT TIMES.
- DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND.
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK. THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE
NEXT SEVERAL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
CURRENTLY PWATS STILL ARE IN THE 2 TO 2.4IN RANGE FROM THE I-35
CORRIDOR ON EASTWARD WITH HIGHEST PWATS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE
FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL THE HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT HAS STALLED
AND IS CURRENTLY BISECTING OUR AREA FROM MAVERICK COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WE EXPECT A
LULL IN ACTIVITY TONIGHT AS MOST OF THE AREA HAS BEEN WORKED OVER
FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING. THAT SAID THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS POISED TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST NORTHEASTWARD OVER DEEP SOUTH TX. MANY HURRICANE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK BEFORE MOVING JUST OVER
THE GULF. AFTERWARDS MODELS SHOW THE DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUING HUGGING THE TX COAST. WITH THIS TYPE OF
TRACK WE MAY GET SOME HEAVIER BANDS MOVING ACROSS OUR COASTAL PLAINS
AND FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE RIO GRANDE TODAY AS THE DISTURBANCE
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF US. REGARDLESS ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN TAP
INTO THIS ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH 2-3 INCH RATES PER HOUR CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
ANYWHERE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND PERHAPS INTO RIO GRANDE WHERE A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. RECENT HI-RES
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE ON BOARD WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH MOST SHOWING
ADDITIONAL TOTALS IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT ANY WOBBLES IN THIS TRACK OR
SLIGHT JOGS NORTHWARD AND WE COULD SEE HEAVY RAINFALL MUCH FURTHER
NORTH INTO OUR AREA THUS INCREASING THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING THREAT. SOILS ACROSS THE AREA REMAIN SATURATED SO IT WOULD
TAKE EVEN LESS RAINFALL TO EXACERBATE AND CAUSE RENEWED FLOODING
CONCERNS.
EVENTUALLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TROPICAL DISTURBANCE PUSH OUT OF
AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA TAKING THE RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WITH IT.
DRY AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ON THE BACKSIDE ALLOWING MOST OF AREA TO
DRY OUT STARTING WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS BUT SHOULD BE ON THE
DOWNWARD TREND. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP INTO THE
LOW 90S WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE. HEAT INDICES
WILL START TO BECOME ELEVATED AS WELL WITH THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
MOISTURE AND HOTTER TEMPS WE COULD SEE HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105
DEGREE RANGE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
DRIER WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE GETS WE COULD SEE TEMPS REALLY RAMP UP WITH
THE RETURN OF TRIPLE DIGITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS OUR
WESTERN AREAS. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS THIS HEAT
COMBINED WITH REMAINING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA COULD PUSH HEAT
INDICES WELL ABOVE 110 TO PERHAPS 115 DEGREES. CERTAINLY SOMETHING
TO WATCH AS WE WOULD LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE HEAT PRODUCTS IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY.
WE DON'T REMAIN HOT FOR LONG AS GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE INDICATING
SOME SORT OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND/OR CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW/FRONT MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SCATTERED RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ARE THEN FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER
THE REGION WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES, WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS BACK TO NEAR 90 FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND BEYOND. THUS
THE PROSPECTS FOR HEAT REMAIN AS WE WARM RIGHT BACK UP TOWARDS THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. IT WILL STILL FEEL VERY WARM HOWEVER AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE STICKS AROUND. WE COULD STILL SEE HEAT INDICES
ANYWHERE FROM 100 TO 109 DEGREES. REMEMBER TO CONTINUE TO PRACTICE
SAFE HEAT SAFETY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL LOCAL AREA SITES THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. MVFR AND IFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
AND STAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR KDRT, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS TO
STAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 92 78 96 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 74 92 78 96 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 72 91 76 96 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 72 92 76 96 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 74 98 78 102 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 73 91 77 96 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 72 92 77 96 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 92 77 96 / 10 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 90 78 96 / 10 10 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 73 92 77 96 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 92 78 96 / 10 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ209-222>225.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...17
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