397
FXUS64 KEWX 171053 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
553 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY.
- HOT AND HUMID FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE. HOWEVER, SINCE IT WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS IT WILL HAVE MINIMAL EFFECT ON US. THERE IS ONLY ABOUT A 20%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAVACA COUNTY TODAY. THE
REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY AS MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL BE FARTHER EAST. ANY TROPICAL SHOWERS IN THE EAST COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR OUR CWA WILL RISING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY. TODAY HEAT INDICES WILL RISE ABOVE 100 EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. THURSDAY WILL
BE EVEN HOTTER WITH HEAT INDICES ABOVE 110 FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WE
HAVE ISSUED AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR, COASTAL
PLAINS, AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND A HEAT ADVISORY
EVERYWHERE ELSE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
FRIDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A LITTLE MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION AND
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER. THE RESULTING
HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO BE LOWER. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR I-
35 AND THE COASTAL PLAINS, BUT THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD BE BELOW
CRITERIA. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
AND STALL THERE. AT THE SAME TIME DEEPER LAYER MOIST AIR WILL SURGE
FROM THE GULF OVER OUR CWA. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. PW WILL BE HIGH THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER TX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BRINGING BACK DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THIS FORECAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
MVFR CEILINGS WERE A BIT SLOWER TO FORM THIS MORNING, BUT HAVE
TAKEN HOLD AT AUS, SAT, AND SSF TERMINALS. CURRENT THINKING IS
WITH WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE, IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING BEFORE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 5-10 KTS.
VFR SHOULD TAKE OVER AT THAT POINT AS LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS MIX
OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY. VFR REMAINS THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING SOME MVFR SNEAKING
BACK INTO THE PICTURE BY 09Z TOMORROW MORNING AT THE I-35 SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 92 78 97 80 / 0 0 0 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 92 78 97 80 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 77 96 79 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 93 77 97 78 / 0 0 0 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 99 78 105 81 / 0 0 0 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 92 77 97 79 / 0 0 0 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 93 77 97 79 / 0 0 0 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 92 77 97 79 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 91 78 96 81 / 10 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 93 77 97 80 / 0 0 0 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 92 78 97 79 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ171-172-
183>190-202.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ173-
191>194-203>209-217>225-228.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...MMM
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