661
FXUS64 KEWX 171729
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1229 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS HEAT EXPECTED THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BROADER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
A LARGE AND ANOMALOUS MASS OF HOT AIR IS CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS
TEXAS, HARBORING TEMPERATURES AT ABOUT 10 KFT ALTITUDE REACHING THE
97TH PERCENTILE OR WARMER FOR MID-JUNE. THE UPPER-AIR SOUNDING AT
DEL RIO RECORDED A SUBSTANTIAL 4-DEGREE RISE AT THAT HEIGHT BETWEEN
THE 00Z AND 12Z LAUNCH THIS MORNING, SO THE CORE OF THAT HOT AIR IS
BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. DRIER AIR ALOFT AND
SUBSIDENCE IS ALLOWING THAT HEAT TO IMPRESS UPON THE RIO GRANDE AND
HILL COUNTRY, AND IS SUBDUING THE EFFECTS OF NEARBY TROPICAL STORM
ARTHUR IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES TO JUST SOME CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS ALONG HIGHWAY 77.
HAZARDOUS HEAT IS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
THURSDAY AS THE CORE OF THE INCOMING HOT AIR SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION. A LOW-PRESSURE AREA FORMED BY INTENSE HEATING OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INCREASE THE FLOW
OF HUMID TROPICAL AIR OVER OUR AREA DURING THE DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AND TROPICAL HUMIDITY WILL
PRODUCE HAZARDOUS HEAT CONDITIONS. APPARENT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TOP 100F BY NOON FOR MOST AREAS, WITH PEAK VALUES REACHING THE
110F TO 115F RANGE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT, AND
105F TO 112F OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY. A FEW
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS MAY SEE HEAT INDICES
REMAINING ABOVE 100F AS LATE AS 1 AM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AN
EXTREME HEAT WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT THURSDAY FOR THE I-35
CORRIDOR, COASTAL PLAINS, AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE HILL COUNTRY, EDWARDS
PLATEAU, AND NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THESE PRODUCTS
DIFFERENTIATE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE HEAT DUE TO SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
IN MOISTURE, BUT THE MESSAGE FOR ALL OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS IS
THE SAME: THE HEAT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE
HAZARDOUS IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. STAY HYDRATED AND COOL,
AND LIMIT STRENUOUS TIME OUTDOORS. ADDITIONAL SAFETY INFORMATION
IS AVAILABLE AT WEATHER.GOV/HEAT.
THERE IS SOME CHANCE, ABOUT 20 TO 30 PERCENT, THAT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH LATE THURSDAY AND COULD PUSH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WIND
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK AND SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS,
BUT SOME LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY FRIDAY, WITH THE
HOT AIRMASS NOT AS CONCENTRATED. WHILE THIS DECREASES APPARENT
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT, IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN HOT WITH HEAT
INDICES ABOVE 105F FOR MANY AREAS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS. ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR FRIDAY.
A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE ALSO APPROACHES OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY, DIFFUSING OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTH TEXAS COULD SEND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES SOUTH TOWARDS OUR AREA, WHICH MAY AID IN INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES STARTING FRIDAY. BROAD DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF A PASSING
TROUGH MAY ALSO SPARK ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRY
LINE OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT AN
MCS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR OR OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY
SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, FUELED BY THE HIGH HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. IF A COMPLEX OF STORMS CAN GET ESTABLISHED, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE GIVEN WEAK DEEP- LAYER FLOW (LESS THAN 10
KT) AND 1.6-1.8 INCH PWATS. RAIN CHANCES COULD LINGER INTO
SATURDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN SUNDAY AS WELL, DEPENDING ON WHETHER
REMNANT VORTICITY STICKS AROUND OVER THE AREA FROM THE INITIAL
DEVELOPMENTS ON FRIDAY AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS AVAILABLE.
ZONAL FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED NEXT WEEK AS SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING LINKS UP OVER THE SW US AND GULF, RESULTING IN A REDUCTION
IN RAIN CHANCES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE RAINS MAY BRING SLIGHT THERMAL RELIEF, REDUCING HEAT FROM THE
HIGHER-END VALUES, BUT THE OVERALL HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS SHOULD STAY
MOSTLY INTACT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. BOTH THE AIR TEMPERATURE AND THE DEW POINT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS BOTH BY DAY AND
BY NIGHT, AND ADDITIONAL HEAT-RELATED ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS
COULD BE ISSUED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KAUS AND LOCATIONS EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH THE OUTER
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. CLOUDS WILL THEN
SCATTER OUR WITH BASES RAISING TO AROUND 4000 FEET. LOCATIONS THAT
ARE FARTHER WEST, INCLUDING THE SAN ANTONIO TERMINALS AND KDRT,
FEATURE FEW CLOUDS TO SKY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. FOR
THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ESTABLISH
ACROSS THE I-35 TERMINALS (KAUS, KSAT, AND KSSF). EXPECT FOR THE
FLIGHT CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT AND BASES RISE. THE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FOR MOST, WITH
DIRECTIONS BECOMING MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
THEN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT AS TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR
ADVANCES FARTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS TREAD BREEZIEST
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE, INCLUDING KDRT, THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AT
HIGH AS 20 TO 25 KT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 78 96 80 92 / 0 0 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 79 96 80 92 / 0 0 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 77 96 79 92 / 0 0 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 77 95 78 91 / 0 0 30 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 103 81 95 / 0 0 30 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 77 95 79 91 / 0 0 20 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 77 97 79 94 / 0 0 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 77 95 79 92 / 0 0 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 78 95 80 93 / 0 0 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 78 96 80 92 / 0 0 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 78 96 79 93 / 0 0 10 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ171-172-
183>190-202.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ173-
191>194-203>209-217>225-228.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...62
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