934
FXUS64 KEWX 180629
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
129 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS HEAT EXPECTED THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BROADER CHANCES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
POST-TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR HAS BROUGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
TX. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING A WARM, MOIST
AIRMASS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES ARE 1-5 DEGREES
WARMER AND DEWPOINTS ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS 24 HOURS AGO. AS WHAT IS
LEFT OF ARTHUR MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL BUILD BACK IN BEHIND IT. THE BIG CONCERN FOR OUR CWA TODAY WILL
BE RISING HEAT AND HUMIDITY. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND
HIGH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES ABOVE 110 DEGREES FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE I-
35 CORRIDOR, COASTAL PLAINS, AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH A
HEAT ADVISORY EVERYWHERE ELSE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS AND LIFT FROM THIS BOUNDARY COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. FRIDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A LITTLE MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION
AND TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER. THE RESULTING
HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO BE LOWER. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE I-35 CORRIDOR, THE COASTAL PLAINS, AND THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE
PLAINS, BUT THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD BE BELOW CRITERIA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT.
AT THE SAME TIME DEEPER LAYER MOIST AIR WILL SURGE FROM THE GULF
OVER OUR CWA. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. PW WILL BE
HIGH ENOUGH THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER TX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BRINGING BACK DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THIS FORECAST. WITH HUMIDITY ADDED IN THE HEAT
INDICES WILL BE 100-105 FOR THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-35/HWY 90.
WE SHOULD STAY BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO MATERIALIZE OVERNIGHT, BUT SHOULD
ARRIVE AT SAT AND SSF FIRST FOLLOWED BY AUS BETWEEN 09-11Z WITH
TEMPO GROUPS UTILIZED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING
IFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT. IN ANY MATTER, WE SHOULD SEE VFR CEILINGS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING ALONG WITH A VERY HOT DAY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 98 80 94 78 / 0 10 20 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 98 80 94 78 / 0 10 20 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 98 79 94 77 / 0 10 20 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 97 78 92 75 / 0 30 20 60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 105 81 98 77 / 0 30 40 40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 97 79 93 77 / 0 20 20 50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 99 79 93 76 / 0 10 20 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 97 79 94 77 / 0 10 20 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 97 80 93 79 / 0 10 20 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 98 80 94 78 / 0 10 20 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 98 79 94 78 / 0 10 30 40
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ171-172-183>190-202.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ173-191>194-203>209-217>225-228.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...MMM
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