067
FXUS64 KEWX 181735
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1235 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS HEAT EXPECTED THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BROADER CHANCES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
POST-TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR HAS BROUGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
TX. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING A WARM, MOIST
AIRMASS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES ARE 1-5 DEGREES
WARMER AND DEWPOINTS ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS 24 HOURS AGO. AS WHAT IS
LEFT OF ARTHUR MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL BUILD BACK IN BEHIND IT. THE BIG CONCERN FOR OUR CWA TODAY WILL
BE RISING HEAT AND HUMIDITY. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND
HIGH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES ABOVE 110 DEGREES FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE I-
35 CORRIDOR, COASTAL PLAINS, AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH A
HEAT ADVISORY EVERYWHERE ELSE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS AND LIFT FROM THIS BOUNDARY COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. FRIDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A LITTLE MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION
AND TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER. THE RESULTING
HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO BE LOWER. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE I-35 CORRIDOR, THE COASTAL PLAINS, AND THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE
PLAINS, BUT THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD BE BELOW CRITERIA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT.
AT THE SAME TIME DEEPER LAYER MOIST AIR WILL SURGE FROM THE GULF
OVER OUR CWA. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. PW WILL BE
HIGH ENOUGH THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER TX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BRINGING BACK DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THIS FORECAST. WITH HUMIDITY ADDED IN THE HEAT
INDICES WILL BE 100-105 FOR THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-35/HWY 90.
WE SHOULD STAY BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE TO PERSIST FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH FEW TO SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND INCREASING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL BUT OF LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH A COMPLEX OR TWO APPROACHING
THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING OUT WEST, TOWARDS KDRT, AND TOMORROW
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE I-35
CORRIDOR. FOR THIS POTENTIAL, ADDED IN A PROB30 GROUP WITH -TSRA
FOR 00Z TO 04Z AT KDRT, AND 18Z TO 00Z TOMORROW AT THE 30 HOUR TAF
SITES AT KSAT AND KAUS. OTHERWISE, MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE TO BE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE LATTER
HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS TO RETURN VFR LEVELS. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BUT COULD BECOME
TEMPORARILY HIGHER WITHIN OR NEAR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 79 94 78 92 / 20 30 40 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 80 93 78 92 / 10 30 40 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 79 93 77 91 / 10 30 40 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 78 91 75 91 / 30 40 40 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 82 97 77 95 / 20 40 40 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 79 92 77 91 / 20 40 40 50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 79 93 76 91 / 20 20 50 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 79 93 77 92 / 10 30 40 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 80 93 79 91 / 0 30 40 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 80 93 78 91 / 10 20 40 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 79 93 78 92 / 10 20 50 50
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ171-172-183>190-
202.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ173-
191>194-203>209-217>225-228.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...62
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