171
FXUS64 KEWX 191107
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
607 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
- THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF BREAK ON SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED OVER TEXAS. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA.
THIS IS KEEPING A WARM, MOIST AIRMASS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.
TEMPERATURES ARE ARE STILL IN THE 80S AND 90S AND DEWPOINTS ARE ARE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE
EASTERLY DIRECTION AND TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE A LITTLE
LOWER. THE RESULTING HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO BE LOWER. A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR, THE COASTAL PLAINS,
AND THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS, BUT THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD
BE BELOW CRITERIA. ANOTHER WRINKLE IN THE HEAT FORECAST WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION. CONVECTION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT COULD LEAVE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN. IF CONVECTION DOESN'T MATERIALIZE THERE COULD BE MORE SUN AND
HIGHER TEMPERATURES. OUR FORECAST IS FOR MORE CLOUDS NORTH AND MORE
SUN SOUTH. THIS WILL MEAN BORDERLINE HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS.
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPPER FLOW WILL
BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING OVER THE
NORTHWEST IN THE MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY.
THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION WITH HEATING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. PW WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
SATURDAY NIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTH AS LAST BIT OF ENERGY MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER TX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BRINGING BACK DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THIS FORECAST. WITH HUMIDITY ADDED IN THE
HEAT INDICES WILL BE ELEVATED AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND WE MAY
NEED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND THE COASTAL PLAINS.
WE SHOULD STAY BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
MVFR CIGS HAVE REACHED DRT AND HAVE HELD MAINLY ABOVE 1500 FT TO
WARRANT THE REMOVAL OF IFR CIGS FOR THIS MORNING. STRONG STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FLARE UP BY MIDDAY AT DRT AND IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON OVER I-35. GUSTY WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE THE PRIMARY
IMPACT. A GENERIC FORECAST IS LEFT FOR THE LATER PERIODS, BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO INTERRUPT THE
USUAL DIURNAL CLOUD TRENDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 93 77 91 77 / 30 30 40 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 93 78 91 77 / 30 30 40 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 93 76 91 76 / 30 30 40 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 90 75 90 75 / 40 30 30 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 96 76 94 77 / 60 60 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 92 76 91 76 / 30 40 40 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 93 76 90 75 / 30 50 40 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 93 77 91 76 / 30 30 40 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 93 78 91 78 / 20 30 40 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 93 78 90 77 / 30 40 40 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 93 77 91 77 / 40 40 40 30
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ173-183-191>194-202>209-217>225-228.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...18
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