672
FXUS64 KEWX 191823
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
123 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
- THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF BREAK ON SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED OVER TEXAS. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA.
THIS IS KEEPING A WARM, MOIST AIRMASS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.
TEMPERATURES ARE ARE STILL IN THE 80S AND 90S AND DEWPOINTS ARE ARE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE
EASTERLY DIRECTION AND TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE A LITTLE
LOWER. THE RESULTING HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO BE LOWER. A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR, THE COASTAL PLAINS,
AND THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS, BUT THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD
BE BELOW CRITERIA. ANOTHER WRINKLE IN THE HEAT FORECAST WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION. CONVECTION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT COULD LEAVE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN. IF CONVECTION DOESN'T MATERIALIZE THERE COULD BE MORE SUN AND
HIGHER TEMPERATURES. OUR FORECAST IS FOR MORE CLOUDS NORTH AND MORE
SUN SOUTH. THIS WILL MEAN BORDERLINE HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS.
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPPER FLOW WILL
BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING OVER THE
NORTHWEST IN THE MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY.
THERE MAY BE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION WITH HEATING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. PW WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
SATURDAY NIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTH AS LAST BIT OF ENERGY MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER TX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BRINGING BACK DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THIS FORECAST. WITH HUMIDITY ADDED IN THE
HEAT INDICES WILL BE ELEVATED AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND WE MAY
NEED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND THE COASTAL PLAINS.
WE SHOULD STAY BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR SHOULD HELP
INITIATE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS INTACT INTO THE MID-
AFTERNOON HOURS. WE WILL KEEP PROB30 GROUPS IN THE FORECAST TO
COVER THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WE
ALSO KEPT A MENTION OF CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST FOR DRT BETWEEN
00-02Z AS SOME CLEARING TO THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL. SOME OF THE HI-RES
MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LATE THIS EVENING
AROUND 20/05Z. WHILE THIS BEARS WATCHING IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS
AND RADAR TRENDS, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS YET. MVFR CLOUDS RETURN THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH MOST
OF TOMORROW MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 90 78 93 78 / 50 30 30 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 91 79 93 78 / 50 40 30 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 77 92 76 / 50 40 30 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 87 76 91 76 / 70 30 30 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 91 77 95 77 / 50 60 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 88 77 92 77 / 50 40 30 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 91 76 91 76 / 50 50 30 40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 91 78 93 77 / 50 30 30 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 93 79 92 78 / 50 30 30 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 91 78 91 78 / 50 40 30 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 92 78 91 77 / 50 40 30 30
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ193-194-207>209-
218>225-228.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...PLATT
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