137
FXUS64 KEWX 191841
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
141 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE UNTIL 8PM
- RAIN CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
- THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF BREAK ON SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
SEVERAL MCS HAVE FORMED OFF OF THIS BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND HAVE
KEPT THICK CLOUD COVER DECK OVER OUR AREA ALONG WITH SOME CONVECTION
OUT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND ALSO ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA. THIS IS KEEPING A WARM, MOIST AIRMASS OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MID 80S WITH LOW
90S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 FOR MOST AREAS. AREAS THAT SAW CONVECTION HAVE COOLED
CONSIDERABLY, ALONG WITH THOSE REMAINING UNDER THE CLOUD COVER SO WE
HAVE DECIDED TO TRIM BACK OUR HEAT ADVISORY. LOWERED DAILY HIGHS
SEVERAL DEGREES AS THERE JUST ISN'T ENOUGH TIME AND MOST HI-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CLOUD COVER AROUND. FOR MOST THE HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED WITH ONLY PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE AND
ALL OF THE COASTAL PLAINS AREAS REMAINING.
RECENT SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES WITH MORE POPPING OUT AHEAD OF
IT. WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING THIS START TO HAPPEN WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ALONG AND EAST OF I-35.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND FORMING LATE THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THOUGH DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WORKING THERE WAY THROUGH THE AREA
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS SCENARIO PLAYING OUT.
PWATS ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT 1.8 TO 2 INCHES REGIONWIDE SO ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL. AS SUCH WPC KEEPS OUR ENTIRE REGION IN A LEVEL 2 OF 4 RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR TODAY. WITH THE GROUND PREVIOUSLY
SATURATED EVEN 1 TO 2 INCHES IN A SHORT TIME WOULD LIKELY ALL BE
RUNOFF AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING CONCERNS. FOR SATURDAY THERE MAY
BE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. PWATS WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. SATURDAY NIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME LOW
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE LAST BIT OF ENERGY
MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES MOST SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S FOR HIGHS FOR SATURDAY WITH HEAT INDICES ONCE AGAIN IN THE 100-
107 DEGREE RANGE, HIGHEST OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. HOWEVER IT
LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. LOWS TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN VERY MILD WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
FOR THE LONG TERM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL FINALLY BUILD BACK OVER
TX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING BACK DRY WEATHER. A PERSISTENT SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
HOLDING ABOVE AVERAGE AND REMAINING VERY WARM. WITH HUMIDITY ADDED
IN, THE HEAT INDICES WILL BE ELEVATED AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IT'S
POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY NEED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND
THE COASTAL PLAINS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. WE SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-107 DEGREE RANGE
FOR MOST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM AND HUMID IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG WITH THE RETURNING LOW STRATUS MOST
NIGHTS FORMING LATE EACH OVERNIGHT AND DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING.
DRIER WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD GIVING MOST OF US A MUCH NEEDED CHANCE TO DRY OUT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR SHOULD HELP
INITIATE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS INTACT INTO THE MID-
AFTERNOON HOURS. WE WILL KEEP PROB30 GROUPS IN THE FORECAST TO
COVER THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WE
ALSO KEPT A MENTION OF CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST FOR DRT BETWEEN
00-02Z AS SOME CLEARING TO THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL. SOME OF THE HI-RES
MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LATE THIS EVENING
AROUND 20/05Z. WHILE THIS BEARS WATCHING IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS
AND RADAR TRENDS, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS YET. MVFR CLOUDS RETURN THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH MOST
OF TOMORROW MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 78 93 78 95 / 30 30 10 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 79 93 78 95 / 40 30 10 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 77 92 76 94 / 40 30 30 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 76 91 76 94 / 30 30 10 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 95 77 98 / 60 10 10 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 77 92 77 95 / 40 30 10 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 76 91 76 93 / 50 30 40 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 78 93 77 95 / 30 30 20 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 79 92 78 93 / 30 30 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 78 91 78 93 / 40 30 30 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 78 91 77 93 / 40 30 30 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ193-194-207>209-
218>225-228.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...PLATT
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