407
FXUS64 KEWX 041837 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
137 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 104 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
- SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
- CONTINUED SUMMER HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK AND MOSTLY RAIN FREE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING FROM WEST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID SATURDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TO MID
AND UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH STRENGTHENS AS IT BUILDS BETWEEN NEW MEXICO
AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS SETUP
TRANSLATES TO SINKING AIR RESULTING IN DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 90S TO 100 OVER SPOTS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. HEAT INDEX
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 100 TO 107. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
SPOTS GETTING TO THE 108 MARK FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. BASED ON THE
POSITION OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND HOW STRONG IS IT, NOT
EXPECTING TO SEE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IF THEY MANAGE
TO FORM, THEN VERY ISOLATED ACTIVITY FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IN CONTROL AS WE ENTER INTO SUNDAY,
SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS OF THOSE FROM SATURDAY ARE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND UP TO 100 ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
100 TO 107. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS GETTING TO THE 108 MARK FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE WORK WEEK WITH THE
PERSISTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE TEXAS REGION. HOWEVER,
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WEAKENS AND MOVES
TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE PUSHES
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS AREAS. IT LOOKS LIKE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ALONG SEVERAL STORMS COULD MAKE INTO PARTS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU ON MONDAY EVENING. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW ACTIVITY WHILE THE NAM KEEPS IT DRY. THE NBM
SOLUTION HAS IT AND THEREFORE KEEPING THOSE SLIGHT PROBABILITIES
(20 PERCENT). THERE IS AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STAYS OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG WITH THIS WEAKNESS
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. BY
WEDNESDAY, A SIMILAR SETUP OF TUESDAY IS FORECAST, HOWEVER, DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS BACK TO THE
EAST AND INTO OUR AREA ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TO END RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INCLUDING NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
VFR SKIES AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY
MORNING AND WE WILL MENTION PREVAILING MVFR AT SAT/SSF WITH ONLY
TEMPO CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT AUS. FARTHER WEST AT DRT, WE WILL
KEEP VFR INTACT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 97 77 98 77 / 0 0 0 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 97 77 97 78 / 0 0 0 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 97 75 97 76 / 0 0 0 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 96 74 96 75 / 0 0 0 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 100 80 100 80 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 97 76 98 78 / 0 0 0 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 95 75 95 75 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 96 75 97 75 / 0 0 0 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 98 77 98 77 / 0 0 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 95 76 95 76 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 95 77 95 76 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...PLATT
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