943
FXUS64 KEWX 042333
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
633 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 627 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
- SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
- CONTINUED SUMMER HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK AND MOSTLY RAIN FREE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
SUNNY AND HOT WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AND
SHOULD SET A WARM SUMMER BACKDROP THIS EVENING FOR ANY INDEPENDENCE
DAY FESTIVITIES. TEMPERATURES AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 80S TO AROUND 90 UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ONSHORE FLOW TODAY IS
A TOUCH LESS DIRECT THAN YESTERDAY BUT COULD SUPPORT A STRAY SHOWER
OR TWO IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS, THOUGH AN
INCURSION OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ACCOMPANYING A PASSING UPPER-TROUGH
SHOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 70S.
SUNDAY SHOULD OFFER QUITE SIMILAR WEATHER AS THE RIDGE SUPPLYING OUR
CALMER WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE. SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGING MAINLY TO
THE NORTH AND EAST SUPPORTS SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER DURING THE DAY. RESIDUAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM FROM OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES PRODUCED BY CONVECTION OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
COULD ALSO VENTURE TOWARDS THE TX-71 CORRIDOR AND AUSTIN AREA SUNDAY
EVENING, BUT WEAK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THEIR STRENGTH
AND DURATION. RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS AREA ARE AROUND 20 PERCENT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 AND HEAT INDICES PEAKING BETWEEN 96 AND
104 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK STAYS SEASONABLY HOT
WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100, LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S,
AND PEAK HEAT INDICES GENERALLY IN THE 100-105 RANGE.
THE OVERALL PATTERN FAVORS DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING FOR THE REGION,
BUT AS THE OVERHEAD RIDGE ROTATES AND GRAVITATES SLOWLY WESTWARD,
THE RESULTING WEAKNESS IN RIDGING AND LOWERED SUBSIDENCE OVER OUR
AREA INVITES SOME SCATTERSHOT OPPORTUNITIES FOR ISOLATED RAIN. AS
NOTED IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST, MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT A REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR WEAK FRONTAL AXIS REMAINING SITUATED NEAR OUR
AREA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. UPPER-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE
QUITE WEAK, BUT THERE IS SUFFICIENT LIFT TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS MAINLY NORTH OF I-10 IN THE AFTERNOONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SPARSER COVERAGE IS FAVORED, SO RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ONLY AROUND 20
PERCENT.
THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK, THOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERPOWER THE
REMNANT BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND REDUCE RAIN CHANCES. LATER IN THE
WEEK, THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND TAKE UP WOULD COULD BE
A RELATIVELY LONG-TERM RESIDENCE IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS HOT
HIGH-ELEVATION AIR FOCUSES THERE, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD BRING
GUSTY AFTERNOONS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW LAST WEEK. THIS FLOW WOULD
BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LOCAL AREA AIRPORTS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN, AROUND 08Z SUNDAY, MVFR CIGS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR SITES AND LASTING TO
ABOUT 15Z SUNDAY. KDRT STAYS VFR FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
AFTER 15Z SUNDAY, VFR CIGS ARE FORECAST FOR BOTH AUSTIN AND SAN
ANTONIO AREA TERMINALS WHILE REMAINING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 98 77 97 / 0 0 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 97 78 97 / 0 0 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 75 97 76 96 / 0 0 10 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 96 75 96 / 0 0 20 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 80 100 80 100 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 76 98 78 97 / 0 0 20 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 95 75 95 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 75 97 75 96 / 0 0 10 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 98 77 97 / 0 0 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 95 76 95 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 77 95 76 95 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...17
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