902
FXUS64 KEWX 050638
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
138 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 125 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
- SEASONABLY HOT JULY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
- LOW END RAIN/STORM CHANCES EARLY WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND, BEST
CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM HILL COUNTRY TO THE I-35
CORRIDOR
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WITH A RIDGE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS IS
PRODUCING WEAK FLOW OVER TEXAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF IS KEEPING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A WARM,
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE TX/OK
BORDER AND GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH TX. THESE STORMS WILL
GENERATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD SEND SOME CONVECTION INTO
OUR NORTHEASTERN AREA THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE ANOTHER
SEASONABLY HOT DAY AND WARM NIGHT. MONDAY THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER. MODELS
ARE SHOWING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS TO MOVE INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES STARTING DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. ANY STORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH THE STALLED FRONT BACK NORTHEAST, AND
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO OUR ENTIRE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE FOREAST EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES BY FRIDAY, BUT HEAT INDICES
WILL REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE CWA. A FEW
SPOTS IN THE EAST COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVEL EACH AFTERNOON
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SATURDAY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL RIDE
OVER THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONT
NORTH TX. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
FORM SHORTLY AND WILL SPREAD MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING, INCLUDING THE SAN ANTONIO
TERMINALS (KSAT AND KSSF) WITH PROBABLY A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR
CONDITIONS. KAUS AND KDRT LOOKS TO GENERALLY STAY VFR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING. ALL SITES WILL TREND VFR DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE MORNING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS DO CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL. WE'LL ONCE
AGAIN MONITOR FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS FROM THE OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT KEPT CONDITIONS VFR FOR NOW WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE AT THE 30 HOUR TAF SITES (KAUS AND KSAT). THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SPEEDS FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WITH PEAK SPEEDS AT AROUND 10 KT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS AT TIMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 98 78 97 77 / 0 10 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 97 78 97 77 / 0 0 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 97 76 96 75 / 0 0 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 96 75 95 74 / 0 20 30 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 100 79 100 78 / 0 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 97 77 96 77 / 0 10 30 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 95 75 95 75 / 0 0 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 97 76 96 75 / 0 0 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 98 77 97 77 / 10 0 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 95 76 95 76 / 0 0 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 95 76 95 76 / 0 0 0 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...62
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