521
FXUS64 KEWX 052337
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
637 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 625 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
- SEASONABLY HOT JULY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN/STORM CHANCES EARLY WEEK WITH THE BEST
CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE HILL COUNTRY TO I-35
CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL RAIN/STORM CHANCES POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
STORMS LAST NIGHT OVER OKLAHOMA LEFT BEHIND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ALONG THE RED RIVER, WHICH WAS EVIDENT IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT
1 PM CDT SUNDAY. RADAR ALSO INDICATES A FEW GRAVITY WAVES
EMANATING SOUTHWARD AT LOW- TO MID-LEVELS. THESE FEATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND SERVE AS PREFERENTIAL ZONES
FOR SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT AS CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THE STRONGER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE TO
OUR NORTH. OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
EASTWARD TO THE AUSTIN METRO MAY SEE THE WEAKENED AND DECAYING
END OF THESE STORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, BUT MOST SHOULD
STAY DRY.
THIS FAVORABLE ZONE FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT, ANCHORED BY THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN OUR VICINITY MONDAY,
REINFORCED BY NORTHERLY FLOW OVER OZARKS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, THIS TIME INITIATING CLOSER TO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
MONDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING. THE LATEST HREF AND REFS STRADDLE
THE BOUNDARY WEST TO EAST FROM VAL VERDE COUNTY ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY TO THE AUSTIN AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONVENTIONALLY
POTENTIALLY INITIATING ALONG THAT AXIS. CHANCES HAVE TRENDED
UPWARDS GIVEN FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL COOLING, SO RAIN CHANCES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE BEEN RAISED TO AROUND 30-40%.
PRECIP EFFICIENCY DOES NOT LOOK ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE GIVEN HIGH
LCLS AND LACKLUSTER MOISTURE ALOFT, BUT SLOW STORM MOTIONS COULD
SUPPORT 0.5-1.0 INCH RAIN TOTALS WITH AN ISOLATED POCKET OF 3
INCHES. FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-10, AND FOR MOST AREAS TO NORTH
BEFORE ISOLATED STORMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED CLOUDS BRING SOME
COOLING, EXPECT ANOTHER WARM SUMMER DAY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S TO AROUND 100 AND HEAT INDICES UP TO 105. STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO FIZZLE OUT AND DISSIPATE MONDAY EVENING HEADING INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THE WEAK BOUNDARY AIDING THE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FORECAST TODAY AND
MONDAY MAY PERSIST INTO TUESDAY, BUT SHOULD BE MORE DIFFUSE BY THEN.
STILL, ITS PRESENCE SUPPORTS A LOW CHANCE (AROUND 20 PERCENT) OF
ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY, THE TROUGH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DRIFTS FARTHER
EAST AND ALLOWS RIDGING OVERHEAD TO RECOVER SOME. THIS SHOULD LOWER
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK, RETURNING TO THE
TYPICAL SUMMER FARE OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ASIDE FROM THE OCCASIONAL
ISOLATED SEABREEZE SHOWER OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS.
THE CORE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING AND ITS ACCOMPANYING MASS OF WARM
AIR ARE EXPECTED TO SLOSH AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN US AND THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. THUS, TEMPERATURES IN OUR AREA
REMAIN HOT BUT DON'T LOOK TO CHANGE MUCH DURING THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW OF GULF AIR FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
SHOULD TRADE SOMEWHAT LOWER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN EXCHANGE FOR
HIGHER DEW POINTS. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, DETERMINISTIC, AND AI
GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH LOWERING
TEMPERATURES LATER THIS WEEK WITH SOME MEMBERS DROPPING INTO THE
LOW 90S OR EVEN UPPER 80S FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. COOLING OF
THAT NATURE WOULD NECESSITATE RAIN-COOLER AIR, WHICH COULD BE ON
TAP HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AS THE RIDGE
INTENSIFIES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, AN UPPER-TROUGH
TRAVERSING ITS PERIPHERY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS COINCIDING WITH
THIS RISE IN GULF MOISTURE SUPPORTS AN INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LOCAL AREA AIRPORTS THROUGH AT
LEAST 09Z MONDAY. AFTERWARD, MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR TERMINALS. KDRT STAYS VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MVFR CIGS LIFT TO VFR MID MONDAY MORNING (AROUND 15Z) AND REMAIN
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART. WINDS COULD BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AT KAUS. AN EASTERLY FLOW
IS FORECAST FOR KDRT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND THEN
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 78 97 77 97 / 10 30 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 78 97 77 97 / 10 30 20 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 76 97 76 97 / 0 20 10 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 75 95 74 96 / 20 30 20 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 80 100 78 101 / 10 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 78 97 77 97 / 20 30 20 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 76 96 75 96 / 10 10 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 76 97 76 97 / 10 20 20 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 97 77 97 / 0 20 20 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 95 76 95 / 0 10 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 77 95 76 95 / 0 10 10 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...17
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