366
FXUS64 KEWX 060643
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
143 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 129 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
- SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO MID-WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN/STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN/STORM CHANCES POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TO
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS PRODUCING WEAK FLOW OVER TEXAS. A
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH TEXAS HAS GENERATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE MOVED DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. WHAT'S
LEFT OF THESE STORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH OUR NORTHERN AREA. WHILE
THEY HAVE BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, THEY MAY STILL
PRODUCE SOME STRONG, GUSTY WINDS. THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS
AROUND THE DISSIPATING FRONT IN CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE SHOWING CHANCES FOR SOME STORMS TO MOVE INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES STARTING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING. STORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TO THE NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR. STORMS
COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS, BUT SHOULD BE BELOW SEVERE
STRENGTH. TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE, AND THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY
CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE FORECAST EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY FAIRLY STEADY. FRIDAY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL RIDE
OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND THIS WILL WEAKEN
THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS. THIS WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE WILL COINCIDE
WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. THE RESULT WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SUNDAY MORNING MODEL RUN
STARTING TO SHOW THIS, AND THE CURRENT RUN IS CONSISTENT. ALTHOUGH
IT'S VERY EARLY TO TALK ABOUT SPECIFIC RAIN AMOUNTS, MODEL PW
FORECAST WOULD SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. WE'LL SEE
HOW THINGS TREND THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER THE
BIG COUNTRY REGION OF TEXAS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. THIS
BOUNDARY IS PRODUCING SPOTTY SHOWERS, AN OCCASIONAL STORM, AND A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS THAT COULD REACH OR EXCEED 25 KT. THE
I-35 TERMINALS LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY NOT IMPACTED BUT KDRT MAY SEE
THIS INCREASE IN WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 08 OR 09Z AND A PERHAPS A
NEARBY SHOWER. LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS LOOK TO RETURN
FOR THE SAN ANTONIO TERMINALS (KSAT AND KSSF) FOR EARLY TO MID-
MORNING. KAUS COULD SEE LOW CEILINGS APPROACH BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO GO WITH BKN RATHER THAN SCT COVERAGE FOR NOW. EXPECT ALL
SITES TO RETURN TO VFR LEVELS BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE AT
LEAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY BUT BEST CHANCES OCCUR ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY, THUS KEEPING THE
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INSERT ANY MENTION WITHIN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
WIND REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY OUTFLOW OR CONVECTIVE
INFLUENCES, WITH PEAK SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 97 77 96 77 / 20 10 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 96 77 96 77 / 20 10 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 96 76 96 76 / 10 10 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 94 74 94 75 / 20 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 100 78 100 79 / 20 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 96 77 95 77 / 20 10 20 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 95 75 95 75 / 10 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 96 75 96 75 / 20 10 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 97 77 96 77 / 10 10 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 94 76 94 76 / 10 10 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 95 76 95 76 / 10 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...62
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page