670
FXUS64 KEWX 061729
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1229 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1217 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
- SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO MID-WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN/STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN/STORM CHANCES POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TO
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS PRODUCING WEAK FLOW OVER TEXAS. A
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH TEXAS HAS GENERATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE MOVED DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. WHAT'S
LEFT OF THESE STORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH OUR NORTHERN AREA. WHILE
THEY HAVE BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, THEY MAY STILL
PRODUCE SOME STRONG, GUSTY WINDS. THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS
AROUND THE DISSIPATING FRONT IN CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE SHOWING CHANCES FOR SOME STORMS TO MOVE INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES STARTING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING. STORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TO THE NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR. STORMS
COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS, BUT SHOULD BE BELOW SEVERE
STRENGTH. TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE, AND THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY
CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE FORECAST EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY FAIRLY STEADY. FRIDAY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL RIDE
OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND THIS WILL WEAKEN
THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS. THIS WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE WILL COINCIDE
WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. THE RESULT WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SUNDAY MORNING MODEL RUN
STARTING TO SHOW THIS, AND THE CURRENT RUN IS CONSISTENT. ALTHOUGH
IT'S VERY EARLY TO TALK ABOUT SPECIFIC RAIN AMOUNTS, MODEL PW
FORECAST WOULD SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. WE'LL SEE
HOW THINGS TREND THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR THIS AFTERNOON IS ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSRA.
AS OF 17Z CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KSOA/KJCT AND VICINITY
WITH TSRA CONTINUING THROUGH 02Z IN THIS REGION AND NEAR
KECU/KERV. DIRECT IMPACTS TO THE TAF TERMINALS ARE UNLIKELY AT
THIS TIME BUT OUTFLOWS COULD PRODUCE WIND SHIFTS AT ALL TERMINALS
AFTER 21Z. CIG FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO INFLUENCE
OF THE EARLIER TSRA. MODELED CONSENSUS FOR LOWER MOISTURE COMPARED
TO TODAY FAVORS FEW/SCT CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS, THOUGH CLOUD BASES WILL TEND TO BE BELOW FL030.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 97 77 97 / 10 10 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 97 77 97 / 10 10 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 76 96 75 97 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 95 74 96 / 10 20 10 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 99 78 100 / 10 10 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 77 97 77 97 / 0 10 10 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 95 75 95 / 10 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 76 96 75 97 / 10 10 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 97 77 97 / 0 10 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 95 76 95 / 10 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 77 96 76 96 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...TRAN
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