120
FXUS64 KEWX 062345
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
645 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 635 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
- WARM TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY.
- INCREASED MOISTURE BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEKEND WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
REMNANT MCV FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IS OVER THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY REGION. THE NBM POPS
LOOK A LITTLE LOW AND HAVE OPTED TO TREND HIGHER GIVEN HI-RES
MODEL TRENDS. SLOW STORM MOTIONS COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, BUT WE DID OPT TO
EXTEND A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE MID-EVENING
HOURS. FOR TUESDAY, ANY LINGERING RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE TIED
TO THE LOCATION OF ANY REMNANT MCV ACTIVITY FROM TODAY. FOR NOW,
WE WILL ONLY KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS
IN STORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN STEADY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR
100 ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN A DRY FORECAST ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
UPWARD BUMP IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. MOST AREAS SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER
100S ALONG WITH LOWS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. WE MAY NEED TO
MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SOME AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR
106 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS REGION.
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE CENTER OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
FARTHER SOUTH, AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN GULF ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS
TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE INCREASED MOISTURE
AND WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY TAKE A SLIGHT DIP DURING THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH 90S IN THE FORECAST, WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN STEADY IN THE 70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
AT SEND TIME, THERE IS A BUBBLE OF ENERGY CONNECTING THE WEAK
MOISTURE CONVEYOR INTO THE THE MCV DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY WITH SOME LIGHT SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY.
WHILE WE ARE EXPECTING THE AREAS OF CUMULUS ONLY BRING A BRIEF
SPRINKLE TO THE SAT/SSF AREA, WE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF
VCSH. WE'RE SLIGHTLY MORE CONFIDENT THE BOUNDARIES APPROACHING
ABIA ARE CAPABLE OF TRIGGERING CONVECTION AS THE SURROUNDING
CUMULUS FIELD LOOKS MORE SUPPRESSED. THE OUTFLOW CURRENTLY OVER
DRT SHOULD END ANY THREAT FOR NEW CONVECTION FOR THE NIGHT. NO
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH TUESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STRENGTHEN OVERHEAD FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WIND FLOWS TONIGHT SHOULD NOT
PREVENT A BRIEF LOW CIG, BUT THEY SHOULD MAKE IT UNLIKELY FOR THE
MVFR STRATUS TO BE ABLE TO HANG AROUND FOR VERY LONG.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 97 77 97 / 10 10 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 97 77 97 / 10 10 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 76 96 75 97 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 95 74 96 / 10 20 10 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 99 78 100 / 10 10 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 77 97 77 97 / 0 10 10 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 95 75 95 / 10 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 76 96 75 97 / 10 10 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 97 77 97 / 0 10 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 95 76 95 / 10 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 77 96 76 96 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...18
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