150
FXUS64 KEWX 071729
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1229 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1218 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
- WARM TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY.
- INCREASED MOISTURE BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEKEND WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TO
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WITH A TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS WAS PRODUCING WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
TEXAS. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
EXCEPT WHERE THE PRESSURE FIELD HAS BEEN DISRUPTED BY CONVECTION
OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. CONVECTION LAST EVENING COOLED
TEMPERATURES OVER THE HILL COUNTRY, EDWARDS PLATEAU, AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. AS THE PRESSURE FIELD GETS RE-ESTABLISHED THE
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY
LITTLE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO STRENGTHEN, BUT MAY STILL BE
WEAK ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS WILL BE OVER
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE THE SEABREEZE
COULD BRING CONVECTION. CHANCES WILL STILL BE AROUND 20%. BY
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPRESS ALL CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER THURSDAY KEEPING THE
WEATHER HOT AND DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY FAIRLY STEADY. FRIDAY
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY AND WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS. THIS WEAKENING
OF THE RIDGE WILL COINCIDE WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF.
THE RESULT WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING UNTIL MONDAY. RIGHT NOW
THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE SATURDAY WHEN THE PW IS FORECAST TO BE
THE HIGHEST. ALTHOUGH IT'S VERY EARLY TO TALK ABOUT SPECIFIC RAIN
AMOUNTS, MODEL PW FORECAST WOULD SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. THE TREND TONIGHT IS FOR LOWER OVERALL RAIN CHANCES.
WITH THE WEAKER RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES LOWER OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE
REMAINING MVFR CIGS IN THE KDRT AREA EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SHORTLY.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IS POSSIBLE NEAR KAUS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, ACCOMPANYING CB CLOUD BASES MAY DROP
FROM AROUND FL050 TO FL025. OTHERWISE, PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORED OVERNIGHT WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS AT KSAT/KSSF
SUPPORTED BY WEAK WINDS CLOSER TO SUNRISE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 98 76 97 / 20 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 74 97 74 97 / 20 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 97 73 97 / 20 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 96 74 95 / 20 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 75 96 76 97 / 20 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 74 97 76 97 / 20 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 96 72 96 / 20 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 97 73 97 / 30 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 97 76 97 / 30 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 96 75 96 / 20 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 96 74 96 / 20 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...TRAN
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