537
FXUS64 KEWX 071825
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
125 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 124 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
- LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM.
- WARM TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- INCREASED MOISTURE BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOW A REMNANT MCV CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN MAVERICK AND SOUTHERN VAL VERDE COUNTY. THIS
DISTURBANCE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS YESTERDAY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
MINOR FLOODING BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK MID-
LEVEL TROUGH SAGGING SOUTH OVER THE ARKLATEX WILL RESULT IN SHOWER
AND STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. HERE
LOCALLY, REMNANT MOISTURE AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW
SOME ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF US 281, BUT A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AGAIN. ANY ACTIVITY
WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF MINOR FLOODING GIVEN
SLOW STORM MOTIONS. STORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD FIZZLE OUT QUICKLY
AFTER 03Z.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A HOT AND DRY DAY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV AND
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF THE PICTURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE UPPER
60S TO MIDDLE 70S, WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
THURSDAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S AGAIN. HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN TAME GIVEN
ADEQUATE AFTERNOON MIXING LOWERING DEWPOINTS BY LATER IN THE DAY.
FRIDAY STARTS THE TRANSITION TO INCREASING MOISTURE AS A
DISTURBANCE/INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF LIFTS
NORTHWARD AND BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK INTO
THE PICTURE FOR THE WEEKEND. PWATS WILL SURGE INTO THE 2-2.25" RANGE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND
TROPICAL-LIKE DOWNPOURS IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT FORM. BEYOND
SUNDAY, A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MAY DEVELOP WITH BROADSCALE TROUGHING
NOTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES WHILE THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE
REMAINING MVFR CIGS IN THE KDRT AREA EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SHORTLY.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IS POSSIBLE NEAR KAUS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, ACCOMPANYING CB CLOUD BASES MAY DROP
FROM AROUND FL050 TO FL025. OTHERWISE, PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORED OVERNIGHT WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS AT KSAT/KSSF
SUPPORTED BY WEAK WINDS CLOSER TO SUNRISE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 97 76 98 76 / 20 20 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 96 74 97 74 / 20 20 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 96 74 97 73 / 20 20 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 95 73 96 74 / 20 20 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 95 75 96 76 / 50 20 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 96 74 97 76 / 20 20 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 95 73 96 72 / 20 20 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 96 74 97 73 / 20 30 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 96 75 97 76 / 20 30 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 95 75 96 75 / 20 20 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 95 75 96 74 / 20 20 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...TRAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page