358
FXUS64 KEWX 081722 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1222 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION (18Z TAFS)
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1215 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
- LOWERING RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT INCREASING
AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
- DAYTIME HEAT MAINLY IN THE 90S CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING INTO THE 100-105 RANGE FOR MANY
AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
A WEAK SHEAR AXIS OVER TX IS CONNECTING TWO SYNOPTIC SCALE LOWS,
ONE TO THE SW OVER MEXICO AND THE OTHER TO THE NE OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THESE TWO ANCHORS ARE PULLING OPPOSITE EACH
OTHER, BUT THERE WAS STILL ENOUGH SHEAR AND POOLED MOISTURE TO
GIVE PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS S OF
HIGHWAY 90. THIS LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHT OVER ACHIEVEMENT VERSUS
WHAT WAS EXPECTED, AND THIS HAS US LOOKING AT A FEW STRAY COASTAL
SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE DAYTIME FOR WEDNESDAY DESPITE LOW POPS BY
THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS. WE STILL SAW A GOOD BIT OF HEATING AND
TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN LINE WITH PROJECTIONS DESPITE THE
ADDED CLOUD COVER. THEREFORE, WE SHOULD STILL EXPECT A HEALTHY
DOSE OF SUMMER HEAT FOR TODAY, REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE SKIES GET
CLOUD-FILLED OR NOT.
THURSDAY WILL ALSO REFLECT THE STEADY HOT DAYS WITH NOT ENOUGH
SHEAR ALOFT TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES. BUT THANKS TO
THE OVERACHIEVING RAIN EVENTS OVER THE SPRING AND SO FAR THIS
SUMMER, THE SUMMER HEAT HAS MOSTLY BEEN CURBED BY WEAKLY DOMINANT
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER TX AND ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE SOIL AND
VEGETATION TO KEEP MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THOSE TRIPLE DIGITS. THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURE ISN'T HOLDING BACK, AND THERE CONTINUE TO BE
DAILY AREAS GETTING INTO THE 100S UP TO 105.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
FRIDAY STARTS THE TRANSITION TO INCREASING MOISTURE AS A
DISTURBANCE/INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF LIFTS
NORTHWARD AND BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK
INTO THE PICTURE FOR THE WEEKEND. PWATS WILL SURGE INTO THE
2-2.25" RANGE AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND, AND SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING A PRETTY ACTIVE AREA OVER THE EASTERN HALF FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE ADDED MOISTURE, THE SUMMER HEAT ISN'T
EXPECTED TO PULL BACK MUCH, BUT PERHAPS THE AMBIENT TEMPS MIGHT
DIP A FEW DEGREES. MODEL TIMING HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT, LEADING TO
SOME RELATED INCONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL BLENDS. GIVEN THAT THIS
MOISTURE COULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER NEW ACTIVITY AT MOST IF NOT
ALL HOURS OF THE DAY, WE'LL MAINLY FAVOR 30 TO 50 TYPE POPS THIS
WEEKEND, AND HOPEFULLY GET BETTER TIMING SIGNALS AS MORE HI RES
AND RAPID REFRESH MODEL DATA COMES INTO THE PICTURE. GOING INTO
THE WORK WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS, BUT IS CENTERED WELL
NORTH OF TX. THUS WE COULD WIND UP WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF TROPICAL
RAIN CHANCES OR AT LEAST SOME AIR-MASS DAYTIME CONVECTION GOING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS REMAIN ON A PLATEAU
WITH MOST AREAS SEEING LOW TO MID 90S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. VFR CEILINGS LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET THROUGH THIS FORECAST
CYCLE, HOWEVER, THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT A BRIEF HOUR OR TWO OF
MVFR CEILINGS AT AUS, SAT, AND SSF TOMORROW MORNING. FOR NOW, IT
IS NOT IN THE TAF AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. SOME WIND
GUSTS UP AND OVER 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW STARTS TO RAMP UP. NO OTHER BIG CHANGES FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 98 77 95 / 10 0 0 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 97 77 95 / 10 0 0 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 75 97 76 94 / 0 0 0 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 96 73 94 / 10 0 0 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 97 76 96 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 77 98 76 95 / 10 0 0 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 95 75 93 / 0 0 0 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 75 97 76 95 / 10 0 0 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 97 77 95 / 0 10 0 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 95 76 93 / 0 0 0 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 95 77 93 / 0 0 0 30
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...MMM
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