999
FXUS64 KEWX 091037
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
537 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 533 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
- HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK THURSDAY, AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TOPPING OUT IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE EACH DAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- AMBIENT TEMPERATURES EASE OFF FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS DAILY
RAIN CHANCES RETURN.
- STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS IS OVER SOUTH TX, BUT MID LEVEL
RIDGING BEST SEEN AT THE 700 MB LEVEL IS GOING TO KEEP STABLE
WEATHER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. HEATING WILL BE ENHANCED
SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) PLUME,
AND WE'LL PROBABLY SEE TEMPERATURES BUMP UP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO,
AND THAT COULD TAKE AUS TO JOIN ATT AS NEW ARRIVALS FOR TRIPLE
DIGIT TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST TIME OF THE SEASON.
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DUST PLUME, THIS ONE DOESN'T HANG AROUND
LONG AND THE HAZY CONDITIONS WILL BE REPLACED BE MORE MOIST AND
TROPICAL AIR DURING THE DAYTIME FRIDAY. AS PART OF A BROADER LOW
PRESSURE AREA ALOFT OVER MUCH OF MEXICO, A LOBE OF 500 MB ENERGY,
LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTH TX FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING WITH IT HIGHER
PWAT VALUES OF 2 TO 2.4 INCHES INTO THE COASTAL PRAIRIES. THIS HAS
LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT BUMP IN RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND WILL
ALSO SIGNAL SOME HEAT RELIEF FROM ALL THE CLOUDS SPREADING INLAND.
A FEW STRONG STORMS, MAINLY WIND PRODUCERS COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY
DAY HEATING COULD CREATE SOME GOOD AIR CONTRASTS AS THE RAIN
COOLED AIR SPREADS NORTH. WITH THE HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT AND
EXPECTED NORTHWARD STORM MOTIONS OF AROUND 20-25 MPH, SOME AREAS
COULD SEE A QUICK 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNT WHICH TO LEAD TO SOME
LOW-END FLOODING CONCERNS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN US AND BEGINS
TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES
THIS WEEKEND. THE NORTHWARD AMPLIFICATION LEAVES MUCH OF TX IN A
BROADENING AREA OF WEAKNESS AS THE H5 VORTICITY FEATURE MENTIONED
IN THE SHORT TERM BECOMES MORE LOOSELY DEFINED. THIS BROAD AREA OF
WEAKNESS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE 30-40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCE
TYPE OF OPPORTUNITY AT LEAST FOR SATURDAY. THE PWAT VALUES REMAIN
ELEVATED AND OVER 2 INCHES IN SPOTS, BUT THE HIGHER CONCENTRATION
OF TROPICAL AIR SHIFTS NE TO BETWEEN WACO AND PALESTINE BY EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. THIS MORE CHAOTIC PATTERN SHOULD GIVE THE AREA A
MORE AIR MASS STORM TYPE WHICH MEANS TIMING AND LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY JUMP AROUND A BIT BASED ON WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
LOCATED.
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SOAR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND THIS
WILL FUNNEL A LOT OF THE MID LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF THE BUBBLE TO
BE OUT OF THE E AND N. THIS SHOULD HOLD THE POOLING OF MOISTURE
OVER NORTH AND EAST TX, BUT COULD LEAD TO SOME BOOSTS IN RAIN
CHANCES OVER CENTRAL TX AND THE COASTAL PRAIRIES. THE PATTERN IS
FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, SO THERE COULD BE A
ESCALATING CONCERN FOR FLOODING SHOULD THE RAINS CONCENTRATE DAILY
OVER THE SAME SPOTS. THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE SKETCHY LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH THE GFS AND ECM DETERMINISTIC RUNS SHOWING LESS
AGREEMENT, SO THERE IS PERHAPS AN OPENING FOR ANOTHER QUIET PERIOD
AS EARLY AS MID-WEEK. THE NASA DUST AEROSOL OPTICAL THICKNESS
MODELING TOOL SUGGEST A LARGER PLUME MOVING INTO THE GULF EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD HELP SLOW THE RECURRENT CONVECTIVE PATTERN DOWN
BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER FEW
CLOUDS TO CLEAR SKIES. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE
THIS MORNING BECOMING BREEZY BY THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZES REMAIN
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT FOR PEAK GUSTS UP INTO THE RANGE OF 20 TO
25 KT ACROSS THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 100 77 97 78 / 0 0 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 99 77 96 78 / 0 0 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 98 76 95 77 / 0 0 30 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 98 73 94 74 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 100 76 96 77 / 0 0 0 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 98 76 95 77 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 97 75 94 76 / 0 0 20 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 98 75 95 77 / 0 0 30 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 97 77 96 78 / 0 0 30 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 97 76 94 77 / 0 0 30 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 98 77 94 78 / 0 0 40 20
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...62
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