363
FXUS64 KEWX 092334
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
634 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 626 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
- HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK THURSDAY, AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TOPPING OUT IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE EACH DAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- AMBIENT TEMPERATURES EASE OFF FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS DAILY
RAIN CHANCES RETURN.
- STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
ONE MORE "HOTTER" DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW TICKS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY TO MID-JULY AS WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS
INTACT THIS AFTERNOON. A PLUME OF SAL DUST IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, BUT IT IS A BIT MORE SUBTLE THAN RECENT SAL EVENTS.
NEVERTHELESS, THIS WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. YESTERDAY, ATT HIT 100 FOR THE FIRST TIME
THIS YEAR, AND SAT AND AUS COULD DO THE SAME TODAY.
THIS PLUME OF DUST DOESN'T HANG AROUND LONG AS A DISTURBANCE OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF GETS FUNNELED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS ON FRIDAY. MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO A
BIT OVER 700MB. LONG, SKINNY FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH PWATS
CLIMBING ABOVE 2" ON FRIDAY SUGGEST TROPICAL DOWNPOURS ARE AN
INCREASINGLY GOOD BET. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY, BUT HIGHS STILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
90S FOR MOST. STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND
MOVE INLAND LATE FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING WITH THEM GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY TROPICAL DOWNPOURS. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AT BEST, BUT ANY RELIEF FROM THE AFTERNOON HEAT WILL
BE WELCOME. A QUICK COUPLE INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS AS MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS, WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING SLIDING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN
CONUS AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. AS THIS RIDGE MIGRATES
NORTH AND EASTWARD, IT'LL OPEN THE DOOR FOR EASTERLY LOW TO MID-
LEVEL FLOW OVER TEXAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN US. WITH HIGHER PWATS AND
CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE, DAILY RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES WILL OCCUR SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY LOOKING LIKE THE WETTEST DAYS OF THE NEXT WEEK. AN
INCREASING CONCERN FOR FLOODING RAINS DEVELOPS ON THOSE TWO DAYS AS
MORE CONCENTRATED COVERAGE OF STORMS AND SLOW MOVEMENT WILL PROMPT
FLOODING CONCERNS. INITIALLY, ANY RAINFALL SHOULD SOAK INTO AREA
SOILS AS THINGS HAVE BEEN DRY FOR SEVERAL WEEKS SINCE OUR LAST
WIDESPREAD RAINS THE 3RD WEEK OF JUNE. HOWEVER, RUNOFF WOULD
PROBABLY FOLLOW SOON AFTER THE FIRST 1-2" OF RAINFALL WITHIN ANY
PARTICULAR STORM. BY MIDWEEK, THE NASA DUST AOT INDICATES A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF DUST MAY WORK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY, LIMITING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND BEYOND. THE GFS AND
ECMWF START TO DIFFER ON THEIR HANDLING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND HOW IT EVOLVES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN LOW CONFIDENCE HEADING THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO
END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS TO CONTINUE
UNTIL 03/04Z FOR I-35 TAF SITES. WINDS SHOULD RELAX OVERNIGHT
BEFORE RESUMING AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF -RA/-TSRA AFTER 18Z FOR
KSAT AND KSSF. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF THESE BEING VERY
ISOLATED IN NATURE, HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF THIS FORECAST FOR
NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. FOR KAUS AND KDRT NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ONCE AGAIN RAMPING UP
WITH GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 95 77 95 / 0 10 10 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 76 94 77 94 / 0 20 10 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 75 94 75 94 / 0 30 30 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 93 74 93 / 0 10 10 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 95 76 95 / 0 0 20 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 95 76 94 / 0 10 10 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 91 75 91 / 0 30 40 40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 75 94 76 94 / 0 30 20 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 94 77 95 / 0 30 10 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 92 76 92 / 0 40 30 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 92 76 92 / 0 40 30 50
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...CJM
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