282
FXUS64 KEWX 100607 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
107 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1259 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
- HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK THURSDAY, AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TOPPING OUT IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE EACH DAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- AMBIENT TEMPERATURES EASE OFF FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS DAILY
RAIN CHANCES RETURN.
- STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
ONE MORE "HOTTER" DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW TICKS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY TO MID-JULY AS WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS
INTACT THIS AFTERNOON. A PLUME OF SAL DUST IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, BUT IT IS A BIT MORE SUBTLE THAN RECENT SAL EVENTS.
NEVERTHELESS, THIS WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. YESTERDAY, ATT HIT 100 FOR THE FIRST TIME
THIS YEAR, AND SAT AND AUS COULD DO THE SAME TODAY.
THIS PLUME OF DUST DOESN'T HANG AROUND LONG AS A DISTURBANCE OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF GETS FUNNELED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS ON FRIDAY. MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO A
BIT OVER 700MB. LONG, SKINNY FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH PWATS
CLIMBING ABOVE 2" ON FRIDAY SUGGEST TROPICAL DOWNPOURS ARE AN
INCREASINGLY GOOD BET. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY, BUT HIGHS STILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
90S FOR MOST. STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND
MOVE INLAND LATE FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING WITH THEM GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY TROPICAL DOWNPOURS. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AT BEST, BUT ANY RELIEF FROM THE AFTERNOON HEAT WILL
BE WELCOME. A QUICK COUPLE INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS AS MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS, WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING SLIDING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN
CONUS AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. AS THIS RIDGE MIGRATES
NORTH AND EASTWARD, IT'LL OPEN THE DOOR FOR EASTERLY LOW TO MID-
LEVEL FLOW OVER TEXAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN US. WITH HIGHER PWATS AND
CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE, DAILY RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES WILL OCCUR SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY LOOKING LIKE THE WETTEST DAYS OF THE NEXT WEEK. AN
INCREASING CONCERN FOR FLOODING RAINS DEVELOPS ON THOSE TWO DAYS AS
MORE CONCENTRATED COVERAGE OF STORMS AND SLOW MOVEMENT WILL PROMPT
FLOODING CONCERNS. INITIALLY, ANY RAINFALL SHOULD SOAK INTO AREA
SOILS AS THINGS HAVE BEEN DRY FOR SEVERAL WEEKS SINCE OUR LAST
WIDESPREAD RAINS THE 3RD WEEK OF JUNE. HOWEVER, RUNOFF WOULD
PROBABLY FOLLOW SOON AFTER THE FIRST 1-2" OF RAINFALL WITHIN ANY
PARTICULAR STORM. BY MIDWEEK, THE NASA DUST AOT INDICATES A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF DUST MAY WORK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY, LIMITING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND BEYOND. THE GFS AND
ECMWF START TO DIFFER ON THEIR HANDLING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND HOW IT EVOLVES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN LOW CONFIDENCE HEADING THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO
END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION, WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FEW LOW CLOUDS AROUND
SUNRISE ALONG I-35, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DON'T SUPPORT ENOUGH
CLOUDS TO WARRANT A MENTION OF MVFR AT THIS TIME. FARTHER WEST AT
DRT, MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS AND WE DID MENTION SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING
BETWEEN 13-16Z. SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY ALSO DEVELOP TODAY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS, MAINLY NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR DURING
THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST SAT AND SSF MAY BE
SLIGHTLY FAVORED VS. AUS. FOR NOW, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO MENTION ANY PROB30 GROUPS, BUT WE WILL MONITOR AND ADJUST THE
FORECAST AS NEEDED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 95 77 95 77 / 20 10 20 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 94 77 94 77 / 20 10 20 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 93 75 94 75 / 40 20 30 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 93 74 93 74 / 10 10 20 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 95 76 93 75 / 10 20 40 70
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 95 76 94 77 / 10 10 20 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 91 75 91 74 / 30 30 50 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 94 76 94 76 / 20 20 30 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 94 77 95 77 / 30 10 30 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 91 77 92 77 / 50 20 40 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 92 77 92 77 / 50 20 50 20
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...PLATT
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