855
FXUS64 KEWX 101729
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1229 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1213 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
- NOT AS HOT TODAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
MOVES INLAND.
- DAILY RAIN CHANCES COULD LEAD TO CUMULATIVE HEAVY RAINFALL
TOTALS OVER 3 INCHES BY TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
A MINOR DUST PLUME MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND WILL BE MORE
DILUTED TODAY AS A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INLAND. A BROAD
AND SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC REGION OF INSTABILITY IS OVER MEXICO AND THE
WESTERN GULF AND A PAIR OF SMALL MID-LEVEL EDDIES ARE MOVING NORTH
INTO SOUTH TX AND WILL RAISE PWAT VALUES ALONG AND EAST OF I-35
INTO THE 2.0-2.3 INCH RANGE BY 00Z SATURDAY.
WITH THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN BEING CHAOTIC, THERE ISN'T MUCH
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING, AMOUNTS AND LOCATION OF THE BEST CHANCES, AND
NO ONE MODEL LOOKED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE POPS THAN THE
OTHERS, SO WE OPTED FOR A SLIGHT BUMP OFF THE MODEL BLEND, GIVING
MORE AREAS COVERAGE, WHILE TAMPING DOWN SOME OF THE HIGHER POP
VALUES WHERE WE COULD. TODAY'S BETTER CHANCES ARE PREDICTABLY
FAVORING THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS, SAN ANTONIO AREA, AND COASTAL
PRAIRIES WHERE THE INLAND MOISTURE DEEPENS FIRST. THEN THE REST OF
THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST LOOKS AIMLESS AND WE'D ASSUME DAYTIME POPS
SHOULD BE 15-40 PERCENT AND NIGHTTIME POPS BEING SLIGHTLY LOWER.
THERE WAS HOWEVER A SLIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS TO SHOW ENHANCED
RAIN CHANCES NEAR THE RIO GRANDE AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
SATURDAY NIGHT'S BOOST IN RAIN CHANCES OUT WEST IS A REFLECTION OF
THE MID LEVELS SHOWING A BETTER ORGANIZED CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS THAT
EXTENDS NE OUT OF MEXICO WHERE A BROADER LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION
CONTINUES. THE 00Z 7/10 RUN OF THE GFS DEPICTS A LOCAL MAXIMA OF
PWAT VALUES AROUND 2.2 INCHES AROUND EAGLE PASS.
MEANWHILE A LARGE NORTHWARD SURGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES LEAVES A BROADENING REGION INSTABILITY OVER
TX. N/E WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS BEGIN TO POOL MOISTURE INTO AN E-W
AXIS OVER N TX AND SHIFT IT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS IS WHY THE HIGHEST POPS OF THE WEEK ARE CENTERED
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IF WE WERE TO TAKE THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE
LAST COUPLE DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECM RUNS, WE MIGHT SEE SOME DAILY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TOPPING AN INCH IN SPOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
THEN SOME POTENTIAL POCKETS OF 1 TO 3 INCH DOWNPOURS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. OUR STORM TOTAL QPF VALUE LOOK APPROPRIATE FOR THIS
RELATIVELY WET PERIOD WITH VALUES BELOW BOTH THE GFS AND ECM TOTALS
FOR THE 5-DAY PERIOD. WE MIGHT GUESS MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE OVER 1/2
INCHES OF RAIN OVER 5 DAYS WHILE MAYBE HALF THE FORECAST AREA GETS
LOCALLY HEAVY STORM TOTALS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE OVER THE
SAME PERIOD.
THERE IS A CONCERN THAT THIS IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH SOME POPS IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY, MAINLY THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE REASON FOR THE
CONCERN IS THAT AN EVEN STRONGER SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) PLUME IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE ONTO THE TX COAST MONDAY. HOW FAR INLAND THIS
PLUME GETS AND HOW MUCH IMPACT IT COULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION IN A
HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT WILL BE INTERESTING TO TRACK. IF THE PWAT RICH
PERIOD MONDAY AND TUESDAY ASSERTS ITS WILL ON THE AREA, WE MAY NEED
TO THINK ABOUT SOME POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING CONCERNS. ON
THE OTHER HAND, WE COULD ALSO OVERSELL THE RAIN CHANCES (AS WE TRY
NOT TO OUTGUESS THE MODEL DATA TOO MUCH), AND THE LATER MODEL RUNS
SHOW LOWERING RAIN CHANCES. EITHER SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE, SO PERHAPS
WE'LL NEED ANOTHER DAY OR TWO OF MODEL TREND ANALYSIS TO GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON WHICH IS MORE LIKELY. THE DUST MODELING TOOLS WOULD
SUGGEST THE UPCOMING DUST PLUME IS BOTH STRONGER AND LARGER, SO
EVENTUALLY, THE UNSETTLED PATTERN SHOULD WANE, AND THIS IS REFLECTED
IN THE LOWERING OF POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. LATEST AREA DOPPLER RADARS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
ARE SHOWING SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
MOVING NORTHWARD WITH ETA ALONG THE I-35 SITES AS EARLY AS 20Z.
THE BETTER CHANCES ARE FOR THE SAN ANTONIO AREA TERMINALS AND
THEREFORE THE TEMPO GROUPS CARRYING MVFR CIGS. FOR THE AUSTIN
AREA, LOW CONFIDENCE IS IN PLAY AND KEEPING OUT THE MENTIONING OF
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP MONITORING CLOSELY. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
DOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PREVAILING SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO
14 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 24 KNOTS. WIND SPEED RELAXES THIS
EVENING AND WIND GUSTS AS WELL. MVFR CIGS CAN'T BE RULED OUT
SATURDAY MORNING DURING SUNRISE FOR THE SAN ANTONIO AREA AIRPORTS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASES ON SATURDAY ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. MORE DETAILS ON THIS DURING THE NEXT
AVIATION FORECAST PACKAGE AS WE FINE TUNED THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 94 77 94 / 10 30 20 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 75 94 77 94 / 10 30 20 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 93 76 94 / 10 50 20 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 93 74 93 / 0 30 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 94 75 95 / 10 30 50 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 94 77 94 / 0 30 10 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 91 75 92 / 20 50 40 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 75 94 76 94 / 10 40 20 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 94 77 95 / 20 30 10 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 91 77 92 / 10 50 20 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 92 77 93 / 10 50 20 20
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...17
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