828
FXUS64 KEWX 102353
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
653 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 637 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
- NOT AS HOT TODAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
MOVES INLAND.
- DAILY RAIN CHANCES COULD LEAD TO CUMULATIVE HEAVY RAINFALL
TOTALS OVER 3 INCHES BY TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED A BIT FARTHER NORTH
AND WEST THAN WE HAD PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WE HAVE INCLUDED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. CONVECTION SHOULD
DIE OFF QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
REGIONAL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPID INCREASE IN LOW TO MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF/NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. TO THE WEST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US, A
594DM SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE ROCKIES
THIS WEEKEND AND SETUP SHOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL SETUP BROAD 200-500MB EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH THIS WEEKEND,
AND IN COMBINATION WITH PWATS IN THE 2.0-2.3" RANGE SOUTH OF I-10
AND EAST OF I-35 (1.7-2.0" WEST OF I-35 AND NORTH OF I-10), ALONG
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY SFC-700MB FLOW, THE INGREDIENTS FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE IN PLACE.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND WILL ATTEMPT TO
WORK FURTHER INLAND TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. A QUICK 1-1.5" IS POSSIBLE UNDER THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS AS THEY ARE SLOW MOVERS AND HAVE A GOOD BIT OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH AS NOTED ABOVE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN TODAY. HOWEVER, ON SATURDAY, THE MAIN VORTICITY
MAXIMUM FROM THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE UP THE
RIO GRANDE, RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OF 30-50% SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BY LATE EVENING, RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ARE HIGHER OUT
WEST, PARTICULARLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL RESULT FROM ANY STORMS GIVEN EFFICIENT
WARM-RAIN PROCESSES AND LONG SKINNY SOUNDING PROFILES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
SUNDAY WILL START THE TREND TOWARDS HIGHER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES,
BUT THE BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY TREND NORTH OF OUR REGION INTO
NORTHEAST TEXAS. NEVERTHELESS, WITH HIGH PWATS AND ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY, WE WILL CARRY AT LEAST 20% POPS FOR MOST AREAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE WHEN THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING. THE GFS AND
ECMWF AND THEIR PARENT ENSEMBLES HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN MONDAY-
WEDNESDAY. A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL
RETROGRADE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES, STARTING IN TENNESSEE ON MONDAY,
AND SHIFTING WEST THROUGH OKLAHOMA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE,
OVER THE GULF, ANOTHER PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST IS FORECAST BY NASA'S
DUST AOT TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS
TIME, IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH THIS WILL IMPACT RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES GIVEN HIGH PWATS AND ADEQUATE MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE FORECAST POPS ARE
A BIT AGGRESSIVE GIVEN HOW SAHARAN DUST CAN IMPACT THE MID LEVELS
AND DRY THEM OUT AND LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW, WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY 40-60% POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH A NOTABLE
DRYING TREND STARTING WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING CONCERNS
ARE CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AND TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY IN HOW THIS SAL PLUME EVOLVES AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC. BEYOND WEDNESDAY, HOTTER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ALONG WITH LIKELY INCREASED HUMIDITY IN THE WAKE OF RAINFALL FROM
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY WEEK.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
SUNDAY WILL START THE TREND TOWARDS HIGHER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES,
BUT THE BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY TREND NORTH OF OUR REGION INTO
NORTHEAST TEXAS. NEVERTHELESS, WITH HIGH PWATS AND ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY, WE WILL CARRY AT LEAST 20% POPS FOR MOST AREAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE WHEN THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING. THE GFS AND
ECMWF AND THEIR PARENT ENSEMBLES HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN MONDAY-
WEDNESDAY. A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL
RETROGRADE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES, STARTING IN TENNESSEE ON MONDAY,
AND SHIFTING WEST THROUGH OKLAHOMA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE,
OVER THE GULF, ANOTHER PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST IS FORECAST BY NASA'S
DUST AOT TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS
TIME, IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH THIS WILL IMPACT RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES GIVEN HIGH PWATS AND ADEQUATE MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE FORECAST POPS ARE
A BIT AGGRESSIVE GIVEN HOW SAHARAN DUST CAN IMPACT THE MID LEVELS
AND DRY THEM OUT AND LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW, WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY 40-60% POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH A NOTABLE
DRYING TREND STARTING WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING CONCERNS
ARE CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AND TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY IN HOW THIS SAL PLUME EVOLVES AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC. BEYOND WEDNESDAY, HOTTER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ALONG WITH LIKELY INCREASED HUMIDITY IN THE WAKE OF RAINFALL FROM
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES.
SEEING SOME SCATTERED -TSRA AND -RA MOVING OVER KAUS OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS, HAVE ADDED A TEMPO IN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SHOULD SEE
ACTIVITY WANE IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS WE LOSE DAYTIME
HEATING. TSRA AND RA ACTIVITY ACROSS KSAT AND KSSF IS LOOKING LESS
LIKELY SO KEPT MENTION OUT OF THIS FORECAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CLOSELY. COULD SEE CIGS DROP TO MVFR BY EARLY MORNING FOR
KSAT AND KSSF HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR KSSF SO HAVE ADDED A
TEMPO IN FOR THIS. SHOULD SEE VFR CIGS RETURN ALONG WITH
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY WINDS BY LATE MORNING. RA CHANCES INCREASE
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR ALL I-35 TAF SITES SO HAVE ADDED IN
PROB30S TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. FOR KDRT EXPECT VFR CIGS UNTIL LATE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY AM WHEN MVFR CIGS RETURN. VFR CIGS AND GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD COMMENCE BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA IN THE AFTERNOON PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 94 77 94 / 20 30 20 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 75 94 77 94 / 20 30 20 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 93 76 94 / 20 50 20 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 93 74 93 / 10 30 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 94 75 95 / 10 30 50 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 94 77 94 / 20 30 10 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 91 75 92 / 20 50 40 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 75 94 76 94 / 20 40 20 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 94 77 95 / 20 30 10 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 91 77 92 / 20 50 20 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 92 77 93 / 20 50 20 20
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...CJM
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