900
FXUS64 KEWX 110600 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
100 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1250 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
- NOT AS HOT TODAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF CONVECTION
MOVES INLAND.
- DAILY RAIN CHANCES COULD LEAD TO CUMULATIVE HEAVY RAINFALL
TOTALS OVER 3 INCHES BY TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
REGIONAL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPID INCREASE IN LOW TO MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF/NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. TO THE WEST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US, A
594DM SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE ROCKIES
THIS WEEKEND AND SETUP SHOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL SETUP BROAD 200-500MB EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH THIS WEEKEND,
AND IN COMBINATION WITH PWATS IN THE 2.0-2.3" RANGE SOUTH OF I-10
AND EAST OF I-35 (1.7-2.0" WEST OF I-35 AND NORTH OF I-10), ALONG
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY SFC-700MB FLOW, THE INGREDIENTS FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE IN PLACE.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND WILL ATTEMPT TO
WORK FURTHER INLAND TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. A QUICK 1-1.5" IS POSSIBLE UNDER THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS AS THEY ARE SLOW MOVERS AND HAVE A GOOD BIT OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH AS NOTED ABOVE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN TODAY. HOWEVER, ON SATURDAY, THE MAIN VORTICITY
MAXIMUM FROM THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE UP THE
RIO GRANDE, RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OF 30-50% SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BY LATE EVENING, RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ARE HIGHER OUT
WEST, PARTICULARLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL RESULT FROM ANY STORMS GIVEN EFFICIENT
WARM-RAIN PROCESSES AND LONG SKINNY SOUNDING PROFILES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
SUNDAY WILL START THE TREND TOWARDS HIGHER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES,
BUT THE BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY TREND NORTH OF OUR REGION INTO
NORTHEAST TEXAS. NEVERTHELESS, WITH HIGH PWATS AND ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY, WE WILL CARRY AT LEAST 20% POPS FOR MOST AREAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE WHEN THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING. THE GFS AND
ECMWF AND THEIR PARENT ENSEMBLES HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN MONDAY-
WEDNESDAY. A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL
RETROGRADE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES, STARTING IN TENNESSEE ON MONDAY,
AND SHIFTING WEST THROUGH OKLAHOMA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE,
OVER THE GULF, ANOTHER PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST IS FORECAST BY NASA'S
DUST AOT TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS
TIME, IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH THIS WILL IMPACT RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES GIVEN HIGH PWATS AND ADEQUATE MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE FORECAST POPS ARE
A BIT AGGRESSIVE GIVEN HOW SAHARAN DUST CAN IMPACT THE MID LEVELS
AND DRY THEM OUT AND LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW, WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY 40-60% POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH A NOTABLE
DRYING TREND STARTING WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING CONCERNS
ARE CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AND TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY IN HOW THIS SAL PLUME EVOLVES AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC. BEYOND WEDNESDAY, HOTTER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ALONG WITH LIKELY INCREASED HUMIDITY IN THE WAKE OF RAINFALL FROM
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY WEEK.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
SUNDAY WILL START THE TREND TOWARDS HIGHER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES,
BUT THE BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY TREND NORTH OF OUR REGION INTO
NORTHEAST TEXAS. NEVERTHELESS, WITH HIGH PWATS AND ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY, WE WILL CARRY AT LEAST 20% POPS FOR MOST AREAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE WHEN THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING. THE GFS AND
ECMWF AND THEIR PARENT ENSEMBLES HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN MONDAY-
WEDNESDAY. A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL
RETROGRADE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES, STARTING IN TENNESSEE ON MONDAY,
AND SHIFTING WEST THROUGH OKLAHOMA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE,
OVER THE GULF, ANOTHER PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST IS FORECAST BY NASA'S
DUST AOT TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS
TIME, IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH THIS WILL IMPACT RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES GIVEN HIGH PWATS AND ADEQUATE MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE FORECAST POPS ARE
A BIT AGGRESSIVE GIVEN HOW SAHARAN DUST CAN IMPACT THE MID LEVELS
AND DRY THEM OUT AND LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW, WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY 40-60% POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH A NOTABLE
DRYING TREND STARTING WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING CONCERNS
ARE CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AND TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY IN HOW THIS SAL PLUME EVOLVES AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC. BEYOND WEDNESDAY, HOTTER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ALONG WITH LIKELY INCREASED HUMIDITY IN THE WAKE OF RAINFALL FROM
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR, WITH
LOW CLOUDS EXPANDING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE WILL SHOW
PREVAILING MVFR AT SAT AND SSF, WITH A TEMPO GROUP AT KAUS. DRT
WILL ALSO SEE LOW CLOUDS AND WE HAVE GONE WITH PREVAILING MVFR
HERE AFTER 09Z. THE PROB30 GROUPS FOR TSRA HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY ALONG I-35 TO START CONVECTION A LITTLE EARLIER. OUT WEST
AT DRT, WE WILL NOT MENTION ANY CONVECTION JUST YET, BUT MAY NEED
TO ADD SOME CHANCES DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 93 77 94 77 / 40 20 30 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 93 77 94 77 / 40 20 30 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 92 75 93 76 / 40 20 30 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 91 74 93 75 / 40 10 20 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 93 75 94 76 / 30 50 20 40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 93 76 94 77 / 40 10 20 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 89 74 92 75 / 40 40 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 92 75 94 76 / 40 20 30 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 93 77 94 77 / 40 10 40 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 90 77 92 77 / 40 20 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 90 76 92 77 / 40 20 30 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...PLATT
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