491
FXUS64 KEWX 111053
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
553 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 546 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH NEAR
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.
- DAILY RAIN CHANCES COULD LEAD TO CUMULATIVE HEAVY RAINFALL
TOTALS OVER 3 INCHES BY TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER TEXAS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. THE AIRMASS OVER OUR CWA HAS
BEEN DISRUPTED BY CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT HAS
MAINLY AFFECTED THE TEMPERATURES, BUT THE EFFECT HAS BEEN TEMPORARY
WITH BRIEF COOLING FROM SHOWERS. THE BACKGROUND AIRMASS IS STILL HOT
AND MOIST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING
THE SHORT TERM LEAVING WEAK FLOW OVER TEXAS. WITH THE HOT, MOIST
AIRMASS BEING CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY.
MODELS SUGGEST AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TODAY WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION MOVING FROM THE COAST TO THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY
AND EVENING. WHILE OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE MODEST,
INDIVIDUAL STORMS COULD DROP A QUICK HALF INCH WITH THE RICH
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND FORCE A
TROUGH OVER TEXAS FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
GULF PUSHING PW VALUES ABOVE TWO INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. WPC HAS INCLUDED
MOST OF THE AREA IN THE LEVEL 1 (MARGINAL) RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GIVEN THE SUMMERTIME PATTERN
WITHOUT ANY CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM, WE CAN'T SAY WHERE THERE WILL
BE BETTER CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN AT THIS TIME. WE SHOULD GET A
BETTER IDEA WHEN THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS TAKE OVER LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. BY MID-WEEK THE UPPER PATTERN WILL START TO READJUST, BUT
STILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AND LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
SOME CONVECTION CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING FROM NEAR SAT/SSF
WESTWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW
THIS MORNING AND WILL KEEP ONLY VCSH AT SAT AND SSF. OTHERWISE,
MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO
CLOUD BASE HEIGHTS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. WE WILL
KEEP THE TIMING THE SAME ON THE PROB30 GROUPS FOR CONVECTION ALONG
I-35, WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FAVORED. WE DID OPT TO ALSO
MENTION A PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA AT DRT THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST
OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING ALONG I-35,
SOME OF THE HI-RES MEMBERS SUGGEST A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF
CONVECTION COULD MOVE UP THE RIO GRANDE TOWARD DRT LATE THIS
EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 93 77 94 77 / 40 20 30 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 93 77 94 77 / 40 20 30 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 92 75 93 76 / 40 20 30 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 91 74 93 75 / 40 10 20 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 93 75 94 76 / 30 50 20 40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 93 76 94 77 / 40 10 20 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 89 74 92 75 / 40 40 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 92 75 94 76 / 40 20 30 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 93 77 94 77 / 40 10 40 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 90 77 92 77 / 40 20 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 90 76 92 77 / 40 20 30 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...PLATT
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