674
FXUS64 KEWX 120007
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
707 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 643 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF
TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.
- DAILY RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
A WET PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE
REST OF TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A MID
TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS IS HELPING TO
BRING TROPICAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AT THE SURFACE,
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PRESENT AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
ARE AROUND 2 TO 2.2 INCHES BASED ON LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS.
WITH CAPE VALUES AT 1500+ J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP AND PRODUCE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THESE HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD QUICKLY PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL PER HOUR AND ESPECIALLY IF THEY AREA TRAINING (FORMING
BACK TO BACK). IN ADDITION, THESE DOWNDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
MOVING NORTHWARD AND NOT STAYING STILL. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR
QUICK EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO MINOR STREET FLOODING OR
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS THERE FOR SURE. BY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHIFT TO THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY, I-35 CORRIDOR, AND COASTAL PLAINS ON
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY MID TO LATE MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON. THE
COVERAGE AREA LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN TODAY, HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH IS THERE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THE WORK WEEK BEGINS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND AREAS ALONG
INTERSTATE 10. MONDAY MORNING COULD START WITH SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183, BUT AS
THE DAY GOES ON AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH
FROM CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS FEATURE IN ADDITION TO AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE BETWEEN NORTHEAST MEXICO AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS ARE
FORECAST TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE BETTER CHANCES APPEAR OVER THE HILL COUNTRY, I-35 CORRIDOR, AND
COASTAL PLAINS AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHEAST
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS LINGERS FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY
EVENING AND CHANCES FOR RAIN DROP SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DRY AIRMASS SPREADS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY TO END THE WET PATTERN PERIOD.
DUE TO CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
MESSY FORECAST FOR TONIGHTS TAF PACKAGE AS -RA LINGERS OVER KSAT
AND KSSF. WE SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY END AFTER SUNSET AS WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING WITH VFR CIGS RETURNING. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
RETURN FOR ALL TAF SITES BY AT LEAST 09Z IF NOT EARLIER ESPECIALLY
FOR KSAT/KSSF. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT WE COULD EVEN SEE A
FEW HOURS OF IFR AT ALL I-35 TAF SITES THUS HAVE ADDED IN TEMPOS
FOR A FEW HOURS (10Z-12Z) TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WE SHOULD SEE CIGS
IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY LATE MORNING BEFORE WE SEE MORE CHANCES OF
RA AND TSRA AFTER 18Z. HAVE ADDED IN PROB30 GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS AT KAUS AND WE MAY NEED TO ADD MENTION FOR KSAT AND KSSF IF
TRENDS CONTINUE. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS LOWER FOR THESE
SITES SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF THIS PACKAGE FOR NOW. FOR KDRT
EXPECT MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT BEFORE VFR CIGS RETURN BY LATE MORNING
WITH A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY COULD SEE IFR CIGS. HOWEVER HAVE KEPT
MENTION OUT OF THESE TAFS FOR NOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AND ASSESS AS NEEDED. ADDED IN PROB30 FOR 06Z UNTIL 10Z TO
ACCOUNT FOR -TSRA CHANCES INCREASING AS STORM ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO
THE WEST OVERNIGHT WITH ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY ENDING BY DAYBREAK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 93 76 92 / 10 30 20 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 76 93 76 92 / 10 30 20 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 75 93 75 92 / 20 30 10 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 92 74 91 / 10 30 20 60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 75 93 75 93 / 60 40 50 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 93 76 92 / 10 30 20 60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 91 75 91 / 40 10 20 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 75 93 75 92 / 20 30 10 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 92 76 91 / 10 40 10 60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 91 77 91 / 20 20 10 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 92 76 92 / 20 20 10 30
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...CJM
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