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FXUS64 KEWX 120714
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
214 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 211 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- DAILY RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER TEXAS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. THE AIRMASS OVER OUR CWA HAS
BEEN DISRUPTED BY SATURDAY'S CONVECTION. IT HAS MAINLY AFFECTED THE
TEMPERATURES, AND UNLIKE YESTERDAY THE EFFECTS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS THIS MORNING A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THE AIRMASS
WILL RECOVER TODAY WITH CONTINUING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE SHORT
TERM LEAVING WEAK FLOW OVER TEXAS. WE DON'T SEE ANY UPPER IMPULSES
COMING TODAY AND WHILE WE DO EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LESS THAN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND FORCE A TROUGH OVER TEXAS FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION STARTING MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
MONDAY NIGHT WE WILL SEE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE WITH PW
VALUES EXCEEDING TWO INCHES OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WPC HAS INCLUDED MOST OF THE AREA IN
THE LEVEL 1 (MARGINAL) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BOTH MONDAY,
TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY. THEY HAVE ADDED A LEVEL 2 (SLIGHT) RISK FOR
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITHOUT ANY CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM, WE CAN'T SAY
WHERE THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN AT THIS TIME. WE
SHOULD GET A BETTER IDEA WHEN THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS TAKE OVER.
BY LATE WEEK THE UPPER PATTERN WILL START TO READJUST, BUT STILL
BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AND LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY.
THE END OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY. WITH ALL OF THE CLOUDINESS AND
RAIN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS NOT REACHING 90
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND STAYING BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES. WE DID OPT TO CONTINUE THE
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS FOR THE I-35 SITES AROUND SUNRISE,
ESPECIALLY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND
RECENT RAINFALL. CIGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO VFR BY LATE MORNING, BUT
SUSPECT A BKN CLOUD DECK WITH CIGS AROUND 4K AGL WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED, WE
WILL CONTINUE THE PROB30 FOR TSRA EARLY THIS MORNING AT DRT GIVEN
RECENT RADAR TRENDS. WE ALSO EXPANDED THE PROB30 TO COVER ALL I-35
SITES DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 94 77 92 75 / 20 20 40 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 93 77 92 75 / 20 20 40 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 93 76 93 75 / 20 20 40 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 92 75 90 73 / 20 20 50 70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 93 76 95 76 / 50 50 50 50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 94 76 91 73 / 20 20 50 70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 92 76 92 75 / 10 10 20 60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 93 76 92 75 / 20 20 40 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 94 77 92 75 / 30 20 50 60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 92 77 92 77 / 20 20 30 60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 92 77 92 77 / 20 10 30 50
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...PLATT
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