452
FXUS64 KEWX 121710
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1210 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1206 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- DAILY RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER TEXAS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. THE AIRMASS OVER OUR CWA HAS
BEEN DISRUPTED BY SATURDAY'S CONVECTION. IT HAS MAINLY AFFECTED THE
TEMPERATURES, AND UNLIKE YESTERDAY THE EFFECTS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS THIS MORNING A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THE AIRMASS
WILL RECOVER TODAY WITH CONTINUING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE SHORT
TERM LEAVING WEAK FLOW OVER TEXAS. WE DON'T SEE ANY UPPER IMPULSES
COMING TODAY AND WHILE WE DO EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LESS THAN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND FORCE A TROUGH OVER TEXAS FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION STARTING MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
MONDAY NIGHT WE WILL SEE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE WITH PW
VALUES EXCEEDING TWO INCHES OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WPC HAS INCLUDED MOST OF THE AREA IN
THE LEVEL 1 (MARGINAL) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BOTH MONDAY,
TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY. THEY HAVE ADDED A LEVEL 2 (SLIGHT) RISK FOR
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITHOUT ANY CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM, WE CAN'T SAY
WHERE THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN AT THIS TIME. WE
SHOULD GET A BETTER IDEA WHEN THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS TAKE OVER.
BY LATE WEEK THE UPPER PATTERN WILL START TO READJUST, BUT STILL
BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AND LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY.
THE END OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY. WITH ALL OF THE CLOUDINESS AND
RAIN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS NOT REACHING 90
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND STAYING BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
PRIMARY CONCERNS TODAY REVOLVE AROUND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL COVERAGE IS HIGH, BUT IT SHOULD BE LESS
WIDESPREAD THAN YESTERDAY, SO PROB30 GROUPS ARE UTILIZED RATHER
THAN TEMPO OR PREVAILING LIKE WAS USED ON SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHTER, LESS THAN 10 KTS, WITH A GENERAL EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS
AND PERHAPS A SHOT AT IFR CEILINGS RETURN TONIGHT AFTER 09Z AT
SAT, SSF, AND AUS, AND LATER AT DRT. FOR NOW, HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
TSRA MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST BEYOND 00Z TONIGHT AS CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE PROB30 OR GREATER ODDS AT ALL TAF SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 91 74 86 / 10 50 60 80
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 76 91 74 86 / 10 50 50 80
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 75 92 74 87 / 10 40 60 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 90 72 84 / 10 40 60 90
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 93 75 89 / 50 20 60 60
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 91 73 85 / 20 50 60 90
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 91 74 87 / 30 10 60 40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 76 91 74 87 / 10 40 60 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 90 75 86 / 20 60 50 80
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 91 76 87 / 10 20 50 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 77 91 76 88 / 10 20 60 40
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...MMM
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