190
FXUS64 KEWX 122003
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
303 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- INCREASING RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU...FLOOD
WATCH COULD BE NEEDED.
- BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CAN BE
VERIFIED BY THE 12Z DEL RIO SOUNDING WHICH REPORTED A PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE OF 2.1 INCHES. THIS VALUE IS NEAR THE MAX VALUE FOR DEL
RIO STATION. WITH THIS TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
DOMINATING FROM THE SURFACE TO 20,000 FT, WE ARE ANTICIPATING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS THAT COULD QUICKLY PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL PER
HOUR. ONE OF THE MAIN FEATURES OF THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THE MID
TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING BETWEEN NORTHEAST MEXICO AND
PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ANOTHER FEATURE TO LOOK FOR AND
RESPONSIBLE OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE MIDDLE AND EAST
TEXAS COAST IS THE SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE SLOWLY MOVING TO THE NORTH AND AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COASTAL PLAINS. THIS TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDES CHANCES FOR RAIN ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN, THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU WHERE BETTER FORCING EXISTS. THIS TREND
COULD PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THERE MAY BY A LULL IN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY ON MONDAY MORNING
BUT STORMS RETURN LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TAKING PLACE. ALSO, THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO LINGER AROUND THE PECOS AREA WHILE A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS SETUP COULD
RESULT ON ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
ESPECIALLY THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS, SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, AND HILL
COUNTRY. REMEMBER, THAT THE TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE IS LOADED WITH
PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS MEANS THAT ANY MODERATE TO STRONG STORM
COULD PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
AS WE ENTER THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD ESPECIALLY THE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME, THE SETUP FOR HEAVY RAIN IS BECOMING
MORE CLEAR AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ABOVE MENTIONED SHIFTS TO
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND STAYS THERE. IN THE MEAN TIME, PULSES OF
ENERGY COMING OUT FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO MOVE OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS, SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, AND HILL COUNTRY. WITH THAT SAID,
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT OVER THESE AREAS FOR AT
LEAST 48 TO 72 HOURS. AREAS ALONG DEL RIO TO EAGLE PASS AND POINTS
TO THE EAST ARE URGE TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND UPDATES. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLOODING. WITH RICH MOISTURE
AND GOOD FORCING THROUGH THE PERIOD, STORM RAINFALL TOTALS (FROM
THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING) OF 4 TO 8 INCHES CAN'T BE RULED
OUT. A FLOOD WATCH COULD BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS IF THE
HEAVY RAINFALL SIGNAL CONTINUES TO SHOW IN NEWEST MODEL RUNS AND
HIRES SOLUTIONS.
BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES
WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. BY THE WAY, DURING THE WET
PERIOD, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO STAY IN THE 80S FOR MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WITH 90S BACK FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
PRIMARY CONCERNS TODAY REVOLVE AROUND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL COVERAGE IS HIGH, BUT IT SHOULD BE LESS
WIDESPREAD THAN YESTERDAY, SO PROB30 GROUPS ARE UTILIZED RATHER
THAN TEMPO OR PREVAILING LIKE WAS USED ON SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHTER, LESS THAN 10 KTS, WITH A GENERAL EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS
AND PERHAPS A SHOT AT IFR CEILINGS RETURN TONIGHT AFTER 09Z AT
SAT, SSF, AND AUS, AND LATER AT DRT. FOR NOW, HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
TSRA MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST BEYOND 00Z TONIGHT AS CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE PROB30 OR GREATER ODDS AT ALL TAF SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 91 74 86 / 10 50 60 80
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 76 91 74 86 / 10 50 50 80
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 75 92 74 87 / 10 40 60 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 90 72 84 / 10 40 60 90
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 93 75 89 / 50 20 60 60
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 91 73 85 / 20 50 60 90
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 91 74 87 / 30 10 60 40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 76 91 74 87 / 10 40 60 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 90 75 86 / 20 60 50 80
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 91 76 87 / 10 20 50 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 77 91 76 88 / 10 20 60 40
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...MMM
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