711
FXUS64 KEWX 122354
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
654 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 638 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- INCREASING RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU...FLOOD
WATCH COULD BE NEEDED.
- BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CAN BE
VERIFIED BY THE 12Z DEL RIO SOUNDING WHICH REPORTED A PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE OF 2.1 INCHES. THIS VALUE IS NEAR THE MAX VALUE FOR DEL
RIO STATION. WITH THIS TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
DOMINATING FROM THE SURFACE TO 20,000 FT, WE ARE ANTICIPATING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS THAT COULD QUICKLY PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL PER
HOUR. ONE OF THE MAIN FEATURES OF THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THE MID
TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING BETWEEN NORTHEAST MEXICO AND
PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ANOTHER FEATURE TO LOOK FOR AND
RESPONSIBLE OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE MIDDLE AND EAST
TEXAS COAST IS THE SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE SLOWLY MOVING TO THE NORTH AND AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COASTAL PLAINS. THIS TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDES CHANCES FOR RAIN ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN, THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU WHERE BETTER FORCING EXISTS. THIS TREND
COULD PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THERE MAY BY A LULL IN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY ON MONDAY MORNING
BUT STORMS RETURN LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TAKING PLACE. ALSO, THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO LINGER AROUND THE PECOS AREA WHILE A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS SETUP COULD
RESULT ON ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
ESPECIALLY THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS, SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, AND HILL
COUNTRY. REMEMBER, THAT THE TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE IS LOADED WITH
PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS MEANS THAT ANY MODERATE TO STRONG STORM
COULD PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
AS WE ENTER THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD ESPECIALLY THE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME, THE SETUP FOR HEAVY RAIN IS BECOMING
MORE CLEAR AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ABOVE MENTIONED SHIFTS TO
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND STAYS THERE. IN THE MEAN TIME, PULSES OF
ENERGY COMING OUT FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO MOVE OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS, SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, AND HILL COUNTRY. WITH THAT SAID,
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT OVER THESE AREAS FOR AT
LEAST 48 TO 72 HOURS. AREAS ALONG DEL RIO TO EAGLE PASS AND POINTS
TO THE EAST ARE URGE TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND UPDATES. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLOODING. WITH RICH MOISTURE
AND GOOD FORCING THROUGH THE PERIOD, STORM RAINFALL TOTALS (FROM
THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING) OF 4 TO 8 INCHES CAN'T BE RULED
OUT. A FLOOD WATCH COULD BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS IF THE
HEAVY RAINFALL SIGNAL CONTINUES TO SHOW IN NEWEST MODEL RUNS AND
HIRES SOLUTIONS.
BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES
WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. BY THE WAY, DURING THE WET
PERIOD, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO STAY IN THE 80S FOR MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WITH 90S BACK FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
VFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FOR ALL I-35
TAF SITES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
DONE FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
AMEND AS NEEDED. OVERNIGHT EXPECT CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR AND
CONTINUE UNTIL LATE MORNING BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON. LIKE THE PAST FEW AFTERNOONS HAVE PROB30S IN TO ACCOUNT
FOR CHANCES OF CONVECTION WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR KAUS AND
THEN KSAT. NOT AS CONFIDENT FOR KSSF SO HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT FOR
NOW AND WILL REASSESS AS GET CLOSER. FOR KDRT LEFT VCSH AS
PREVAILING DUE TO THE CONVECTION NEARBY THE TERMINAL. HAVE ALSO
ADDED IN A TEMPO FOR NEXT FEW HOURS FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION AS
STORMS CONTINUE FORMING NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WE EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND PERHAPS EVEN LONGER
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THIS DURATION. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AND AMEND AS NEEDED. MVFR CIGS EVENTUALLY RETURN BY
EARLY MORNING WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 91 74 86 / 10 50 60 80
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 76 91 74 86 / 10 50 50 80
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 75 92 74 87 / 10 40 60 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 90 72 84 / 10 40 60 90
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 93 75 89 / 50 20 60 60
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 91 73 85 / 20 50 60 90
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 91 74 87 / 30 10 60 40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 76 91 74 87 / 10 40 60 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 90 75 86 / 20 60 50 80
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 91 76 87 / 10 20 50 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 77 91 76 88 / 10 20 60 40
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...CJM
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