550
FXUS64 KEWX 130601 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
101 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1253 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
- INCREASING RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU...FLOOD
WATCH COULD BE NEEDED.
- BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CAN BE
VERIFIED BY THE 12Z DEL RIO SOUNDING WHICH REPORTED A PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE OF 2.1 INCHES. THIS VALUE IS NEAR THE MAX VALUE FOR DEL
RIO STATION. WITH THIS TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
DOMINATING FROM THE SURFACE TO 20,000 FT, WE ARE ANTICIPATING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS THAT COULD QUICKLY PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL PER
HOUR. ONE OF THE MAIN FEATURES OF THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THE MID
TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING BETWEEN NORTHEAST MEXICO AND
PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ANOTHER FEATURE TO LOOK FOR AND
RESPONSIBLE OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE MIDDLE AND EAST
TEXAS COAST IS THE SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE SLOWLY MOVING TO THE NORTH AND AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COASTAL PLAINS. THIS TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDES CHANCES FOR RAIN ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN, THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU WHERE BETTER FORCING EXISTS. THIS TREND
COULD PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THERE MAY BY A LULL IN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY ON MONDAY MORNING
BUT STORMS RETURN LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TAKING PLACE. ALSO, THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO LINGER AROUND THE PECOS AREA WHILE A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS SETUP COULD
RESULT ON ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
ESPECIALLY THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS, SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, AND HILL
COUNTRY. REMEMBER, THAT THE TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE IS LOADED WITH
PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS MEANS THAT ANY MODERATE TO STRONG STORM
COULD PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
AS WE ENTER THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD ESPECIALLY THE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME, THE SETUP FOR HEAVY RAIN IS BECOMING
MORE CLEAR AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ABOVE MENTIONED SHIFTS TO
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND STAYS THERE. IN THE MEAN TIME, PULSES OF
ENERGY COMING OUT FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO MOVE OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS, SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, AND HILL COUNTRY. WITH THAT SAID,
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT OVER THESE AREAS FOR AT
LEAST 48 TO 72 HOURS. AREAS ALONG DEL RIO TO EAGLE PASS AND POINTS
TO THE EAST ARE URGE TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND UPDATES. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLOODING. WITH RICH MOISTURE
AND GOOD FORCING THROUGH THE PERIOD, STORM RAINFALL TOTALS (FROM
THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING) OF 4 TO 8 INCHES CAN'T BE RULED
OUT. A FLOOD WATCH COULD BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS IF THE
HEAVY RAINFALL SIGNAL CONTINUES TO SHOW IN NEWEST MODEL RUNS AND
HIRES SOLUTIONS.
BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES
WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. BY THE WAY, DURING THE WET
PERIOD, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO STAY IN THE 80S FOR MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WITH 90S BACK FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SHRA OUT OF THE AVIATION FORECAST FOR
OUR TAFS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, WE MAY NEED TO
MONITOR TRENDS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AS A STRAY SHOWER COULD MOVE
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TERMINAL OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT WILL RESULT IN MAINLY MVFR CIGS FOR ALL SITES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BRIEF IFR CIGS
NEAR KSAT AROUND 12Z. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH
AUS SEEING THE EARLIEST CHANCE, FOLLOWED BY SAT AND SSF. THIS
WILL BE HANDLED WITH PROB30 GROUPS AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE TIMING, MAINLY 18-21Z AUS AND 23-03Z FOR SAT AND
SSF. WILL HOLD OFF ON A MENTION OF TSRA AT DRT THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD, BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO ADD A MENTION AFTER
14/06Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 91 74 87 73 / 50 70 90 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 91 74 87 73 / 50 70 90 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 92 74 87 73 / 20 60 70 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 89 72 85 71 / 70 70 90 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 92 74 86 72 / 30 60 70 80
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 90 72 86 71 / 60 70 90 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 91 73 86 72 / 10 60 40 60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 92 74 87 73 / 40 70 80 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 90 74 85 74 / 60 60 80 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 91 76 87 74 / 10 60 60 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 91 76 88 75 / 10 60 40 50
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...PLATT
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