914
FXUS64 KEWX 131057 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
557 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 548 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
- INCREASING RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU...FLOOD WATCH
COULD BE NEEDED.
- BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS A STRONG RIDGE OVER MOST OF
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH A CLOSED HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE 500MB FLOW OVER TEXAS HOWEVER IS FROM THE WEST. THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE AIRMASS OVER OUR CWA HAS RECOVERED FROM SATURDAY'S
CONVECTION AND IS WARM AND MOIST. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, A TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER TEXAS FROM THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
STARTING TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT WE WILL SEE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE WITH PW VALUES
EXCEEDING TO OVER TWO INCHES OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL LEAD
TO CHANCES FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. WPC HAS INCLUDED MOST OF OUR CWA IN THE LEVEL 2 (SLIGHT)
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MONDAY RISK IS
MOSTLY FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. A FLOOD WATCH COULD BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. WITH CLOUDY
SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE COOLER WITH MOST OF THE
CWA NOT REACHING 90.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL ROTATE SLOWLY AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF HIGH
AND INTERACT WITH THE WARM, MOIST AIRMASS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PW WILL REMAIN UNUSUALLY HIGH,
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. WPC HAS
INCLUDED THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS IN THE
LEVEL 2 (SLIGHT) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND THE REST OF THE AREA
IN THE LEVEL 1 (MARGINAL) RISK FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE 0.5-4 INCHES WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE THE LEVEL 2 RISK IS. THERE ALSO BE ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY PERIOD COULD BE 2-6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 8 INCHES. BY
LATE WEEK THE UPPER PATTERN WILL START TO READJUST, BUT STILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AND LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OUT WEST
FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY. WITH ALL OF THE CLOUDINESS AND
RAIN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS NOT REACHING 90
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND STAYING BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
OVERALL, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE LATEST
AVIATION FORECASTS. WE DID KEEP THE MENTION OF MVFR CIGS FOR ALL
TAF SITES THIS MORNING, ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OUT WEST AT
DRT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION STILL LOOK FAVORABLE THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG I-35 AND WILL RETAIN THE PROB30 GROUPS FOR TSRA. WE ALSO
ADDED A PROB30 GROUP AT DRT LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 91 74 87 73 / 50 70 90 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 91 74 87 73 / 50 70 90 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 92 74 87 73 / 20 60 70 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 89 72 85 71 / 70 70 90 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 92 74 86 72 / 30 60 70 80
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 90 72 86 71 / 60 70 90 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 91 73 86 72 / 10 60 40 60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 92 74 87 73 / 40 70 80 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 90 74 85 74 / 60 60 80 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 91 76 87 74 / 10 60 60 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 91 76 88 75 / 10 60 40 50
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...PLATT
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