504
FXUS64 KEWX 151202
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
702 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 637 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
- THE FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH INTENSE RAIN RATES
AND COMPOUNDING EFFECTS FROM MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS RESULTING IN
A DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING THREAT THROUGH THURSDAY.
- CONSIDERABLE TO LOCALLY CATASTROPHIC IMPACTS FROM FLASH FLOODING
ARE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE U.S. 90 CORRIDOR WEST OF SAN ANTONIO,
INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE.
- POCKETS OF AN ADDITIONAL 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE HIGHEST RISK AREAS, WITH BROADER TOTALS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES.
- POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DOWNSTREAM RIVER FLOODING IN THE PECOS,
RIO GRANDE, NUECES, FRIO, MEDINA, AND SAN ANTONIO RIVER BASINS.
- HEED INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF NECESSARY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING AS STORMS HAVE STALLED GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT. HIGH RAIN RATES (UP TO 3-4 INCHES AN
HOUR) ALONG WITH SLOW MOVING AND STORMS MOVING OVER THE SAME AREAS
ARE BRINGING CONSIDERABLE FLOODING TO THESE AREAS, PARTICULARLY OVER
UVALDE COUNTY. A HIGH RISK (LEVEL 4 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT FOR ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
THROUGHOUT THE HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR WEST OF SAN ANTONIO. HEAVY RAIN
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THIS MAIN
AREA, BUT GENERALLY BE CONTAINED TO WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY, SIGNIFICANT
DOWNSTREAM RIVER FLOODING TO MODERATE OR MAJOR FLOOD STAGES CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE.
STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
MAINLY EAST OF A PARKED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX LOCATED OVER THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THE INFLUENCE FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET. ON TOP
OF THE FLOODING THREAT, HODOGRAPHS SHOW FAVORABLE PROFILES FOR BRIEF
TORNADOES IN THIS REGIME WITH A FEW SPIN UPS POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WE MAY SEE A SMALL BREAK THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEFORE IT RAMPS BACK UP THIS
EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. THIS
WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE TO LOCALLY CATASTROPHIC
FLASH FLOODING LIKELY OVER AREAS AGAIN IN A LEVEL 4 OF 4 RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL-- VERY SIMILAR TO THE LOCATIONS SEEN DURING THIS
OVERNIGHT HOUR WITH THE FOCUS IN THE WEST OVER PORTIONS OF THE U.S
90 CORRIDOR WEST OF SAN ANTONIO INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. MODELS MAKE IT EVIDENT THAT PIN-
POINTING LOCATIONS FOR THE MOST EXTREME RAINFALL TOTALS IS STILL
DIFFICULT AND WILL DEPEND MAINLY ON THE LOCATION OF THE MCV AND
ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. ON THURSDAY, THE MCV IS GENERALLY
FAVORED TO SHIFT NORTH AND WEST WHICH WOULD SHIFT THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT EVEN FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS DAYS THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONTINUES.
RIVERS, CREEKS, AND ARROYOS CAN RISE SUDDENLY AND RAPIDLY! LOCALLY
DRY CONDITIONS NEAR CREEKS AND RIVERS SHOULD NOT BE TREATED AS A
GUARANTEE OF YOUR SAFETY! HEED WARNINGS, INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL AND
COUNTY OFFICIALS, AND AVOID UNNECESSARY TRAVEL. FLASH FLOODING CAN
BE IMPOSSIBLE TO SPOT AT NIGHT. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE RELIABLE
WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS. IF YOU ARE IN A LOW-LYING LOCATION OR NEAR
A STREAM, HAVE A PLAN AND HAVE A ROUTE TO REACH HIGHER GROUND IF
NEEDED.
CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE DRASTICALLY AND SUDDENLY. HAVE MULTIPLE
RELIABLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS AND INFORMATION FROM LOCAL/STATE
OFFICIALS BOTH IN THE DAYTIME AND AT NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
THOUGH IT IS FAVORED FURTHER WEST AS THE MCV CONTINUES TO SHIFT WEST
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER THE SOUTHERN US INTO THE GULF.
WPC CONTINUES THE LEVEL 3 OF 4 RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME TIME
FOR THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS TO CHANGE AS THE OVERALL SET UP
BECOMES MORE CLEAR. GIVEN OUR PERSISTENT WET PATTERN IN EARLIER
DAYS, IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR ANY STORMS TO
QUICKLY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.
A DECREASE IN POPS IS SEEN OVER EASTERN AREAS FRIDAY AND OVER MUCH
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. THAT SAID, SOME GUIDANCE WANTS
TO HANG ON TO SOME RAIN CHANCES, ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST DURING THIS
TIME SO CONTINUE TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE FORECAST. THE RETURN IN
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE MET WITH THE RETURN OF HIGHER TEMPERATURES
WITH FORECAST HIGHS BACK IN THE 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
RADAR TRENDS FAVOR TSRA AT KSAT AND KSSF EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
KAUS LIKELY TO FILL IN BY MID-MORNING. WILL HOLD OFF ON A MENTION
OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG I-35 AS LINGERING CLOUDS AND POST
RAIN STABILITY SHOULD LIMIT AFTERNOON CHANCES. WILL MENTION
MORNING SHRA AT DRT, WITH PERHAPS A BETTER SHOT AT TSRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS HERE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 83 72 87 74 / 80 40 60 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 83 72 87 74 / 80 40 60 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 82 71 86 73 / 90 50 60 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 81 70 84 72 / 90 50 50 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 71 84 72 / 90 90 80 80
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 83 71 86 73 / 80 40 60 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 70 83 72 / 90 70 70 60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 84 71 86 73 / 80 40 60 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 84 73 87 75 / 70 20 50 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 82 73 85 75 / 80 60 60 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 83 73 86 75 / 80 60 60 40
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR TXZ171>173-183>192-
202>207-217>219-228.
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...PLATT
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