101
FXUS64 KEWX 161726
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1226 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1225 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
- THE FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH INTENSE RAIN RATES
AND COMPOUNDING EFFECTS FROM MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS RESULTING IN
A DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING THREAT CONTINUING TODAY.
- CONSIDERABLE TO LOCALLY CATASTROPHIC IMPACTS FROM FLASH FLOODING
ARE LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, RIO GRANDE, WESTERN
HILL COUNTRY, AND U.S. 90 CORRIDOR WEST OF SAN ANTONIO.
- POCKETS OF AN ADDITIONAL 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE HIGHEST RISK AREAS, WITH BROADER TOTALS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES.
- POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TO CATASTROPHIC RIVER FLOODING IN THE
NUECES, FRIO, AND MEDINA RIVER BASINS AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN
THE PECOS, RIO GRANDE, AND SAN ANTONIO RIVER BASINS.
- HEED INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF NECESSARY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CAPABLE OF LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING IS AGAIN
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THIS INCLUDES
LIKELY IMPACTS FROM CONSIDERABLE TO LOCALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH
FLOODING ALONG THE U.S. 90 CORRIDOR WEST OF SAN ANTONIO INCLUDING
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, RIO GRANDE, AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY,
PLUS A RENEWED POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING
INTO MODERATE AND/OR MAJOR FLOOD STAGES IN THE PECOS, RIO GRANDE,
NUECES, FRIO, MEDINA, AND SAN ANTONIO RIVER BASINS. THIS IS ALSO IN
ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT TO CATASTROPHIC RIVER FLOODING ALREADY
CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE NUECES, FRIO, AND MEDINA BASINS AS
FLOODWATER'S FROM EARLIER RAINS CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM. THE
POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED IMPACTS FROM FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING INCLUDE
AREAS ALREADY HARD HIT BY RECENT FLOODING. WHILE THESE LOCATIONS ARE
AT GREATEST RISK AND HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM TODAY FOR A
BROADER AREA ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR, THE HILL COUNTRY, RIO GRANDE
PLAINS, AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING FROM
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL OF THESE
AREAS.
IN THE HIGHEST RISK AREAS (SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY) REGIONAL VALUES OF 2 TO 6 INCHES
CONTINUE TO REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF AN
ADDITIONAL 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH TODAY OVER THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE 1 TO 4 INCH TOTALS CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE FLOOD WATCH AREA. VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES
POTENTIALLY REACHING 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING. BECAUSE OF HOW SATURATED
SOILS ARE, EVEN RATES OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TO TRIGGER FLASH FLOODING THAT WILL AGAIN RAPIDLY ACCUMULATE INTO
CREEKS, RIVERS AND ARROYOS ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
MORE RAINFALL TO PRODUCE MAJOR CONCERNS. ADDITIONALLY, STEEP RISES
ALONG THE FRIO, MEDINA, AND NUECES RIVERS AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES TO
MODERATE AND/OR MAJOR FLOOD STAGE ARE ALREADY OCCURRING AND COULD
EVENTUALLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CATASTROPHIC
IMPACTS. CONTINUED HEAVY RUNOFF AND RAINS IN THESE OR OTHER RIVER
BASINS MAY PRODUCE FURTHER RISES WHICH COULD IMPACT DOWNSTREAM AREAS.
THE FLOOD EVENT IS NOT OVER!
THE WELL-DEFINED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RENEWED ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT LOOKS EVEN STRONGER
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AND WILL AGAIN SUPPORT TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
IT'S STILL QUITE DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH CERTAINTY WHERE THIS MCV
FORMS YET AGAIN AS MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME IN DECIPHERING
THIS. HOWEVER, ONCE THE MCV REFORMS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT
THE VORTICITY WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK SLOWLY NORTH AND WEST WITH TIME,
GUIDED BY FLOW FROM A RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW. AS STATED
PREVIOUSLY, WHEREVER THIS MCV RE-INITIATES WILL BE WHERE THE HEAVIEST
BULLSEYE OF RAIN WILL FALL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS HEAVIER
BULLSEYE.
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LINGER INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
HILL COUNTRY, THOUGH AS WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS, THERE SHOULD
EVENTUALLY BE A LULL AS RAIN COVERAGE BEGINS TO EASE UP. THE MAIN
FORCING FOR THESE STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE AREA TOWARDS THE NORTH. REGARDLESS, TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD BEHIND THE OUTGOING DISTURBANCE,
SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN
TOMORROW NIGHT(THURSDAY NIGHT) INTO FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, RIO GRANDE, AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY. ONCE AGAIN, THESE RAINS COULD IMPACT AREAS ALREADY HARD
HIT. ONE CAVEAT IS THAT SLIGHTLY FASTER MID-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
STORMS TO MOVE SOMEWHAT FASTER, HOWEVER MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINS MAY STILL OCCUR AGAIN.
THERE REMAINS A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAIN
CAPABLE OF CAUSING FLASH FLOODING FOR TODAY THROUGH OVERNIGHT/INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME OCCURRING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS. THE RISK AREA FOR HEAVIER RAINS AND FLASH
FLOODING TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST BUT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
PLENTIFUL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
RIVERS, CREEKS, AND ARROYOS CAN RISE SUDDENLY AND RAPIDLY! LOCALLY
DRY CONDITIONS NEAR CREEKS AND RIVERS SHOULD NOT BE TREATED AS A
GUARANTEE OF YOUR SAFETY! NORMALLY DRY AREAS CAN FLOOD IN THESE
CONDITIONS. HEED WARNINGS, INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL AND COUNTY
OFFICIALS, AND AVOID UNNECESSARY TRAVEL. FLASH FLOODING CAN BE
IMPOSSIBLE TO SPOT AT NIGHT. AVOID FLOODED ROADWAYS. CONDITIONS CAN
CHANGE DRASTICALLY AND SUDDENLY. HAVE MULTIPLE RELIABLE WAYS TO
RECEIVE WARNINGS AND INFORMATION FROM LOCAL/STATE OFFICIALS BOTH IN
THE DAYTIME AND AT NIGHT. IF YOU ARE IN A LOW-LYING LOCATION OR NEAR
A STREAM, HAVE A PLAN AND HAVE A ROUTE TO REACH HIGHER GROUND IF
NEEDED.
WPC KEEPS PARTS OF THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR AREA (VAL VERDE, EDWARDS,
KINNEY COUNTIES) IN A LEVEL 2 OF 4 (SLIGHT) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WITH A LEVEL 1 OF 4 (MARGINAL) RISK ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY, SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS FOR FRIDAY
DURING THE DAY. DEPENDING ON HOW THIS ACTIVITY EVOLVES WILL
DETERMINE IF WE CONTINUE TO SEE ELEVATED FLOODING POTENTIAL
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVEN PERHAPS INTO FRIDAY
EVENING
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
BY LATE WEEK THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD START TO READJUST, HOWEVER WE
WILL LIKELY STILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AND LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST OUT IN OUR WESTERN AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY.BY
SATURDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND WE LOOK TO DRY OUT AT THIS POINT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY MODERATE AS WE GET TO SATURDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE RETURN OF 90S AND MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, WE MAY SEE HEAT
INDICES BEGIN TO APPROACH 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE AS ALL THE
MOISTURE AND WATER BEGINS TO EVAPORATE OVER THE AREA AND COMBINED
WITH TEMPS RAMPING UP INTO THE UPPER 90S BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER SCT MVFR
WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. VCSH REMAINS AND BRIEF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE IF A HEAVY SHOWER OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM PASSES OVER OR NEARBY A TERMINAL. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PREVAILING
MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. GENERALLY SE WINDS
THROUGH THE EVENING BECOMING SSE ON FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 75 91 76 92 / 30 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 75 91 76 92 / 20 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 90 75 91 / 20 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 72 88 73 90 / 50 10 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 73 88 75 90 / 80 40 20 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 73 90 75 92 / 40 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 88 74 90 / 60 10 10 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 90 75 92 / 20 10 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 91 76 92 / 10 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 89 76 90 / 40 0 10 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 90 76 91 / 20 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ171-183>190-202>204-
217>219-228.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...27
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