437
FXUS64 KEWX 170520
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1220 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1214 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
-PERIODS OF INTENSE RAIN RATES AND COMPOUNDING EFFECTS FROM MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF STORMS IS RESULTING IN A DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD THREAT THAT
CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY, PARTICULARLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY,
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
- CONSIDERABLE TO LOCALLY CATASTROPHIC IMPACTS FROM FLASH FLOODING
AND RIVER FLOODING ONGOING.
-MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING ONGOING/FORECAST FOR THE PEDERNALES,
FRIO, MEDINA, GUADALUPE, SAN ANTONIO, AND NUECES RIVER BASINS.
- HEED INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF NECESSARY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING IS ONGOING ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS HEAVY RAIN WITH WITH LOCALLY
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES CONTINUES TODAY. CONSIDERABLE TO LOCALLY
CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE U.S. 90 CORRIDOR WEST OF SAN
ANTONIO INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, RIO GRANDE, AND
WESTERN HILL COUNTRY IS ONGOING IN ADDITION TO MAINSTEM RIVER
FLOODING IN A MAJORITY OF RIVER BASINS WITH IMPACTS FROM FLOODWATER
MOVING DOWNSTREAM. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN TIME THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE HILL COUNTRY, RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AS ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE FORECAST
TONIGHT. WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHIFTING WEST, THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
WHILE THERE MAY BE A SOMEWHAT LULL IN ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, SOME REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH ADDITIONAL
POCKETS OF RAIN UP TO AROUND 8 INCHES POSSIBLE FAVORED OVER SOME OF
THE ALREADY HARDEST HIT AREAS OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, RIO
GRANDE PLAINS POSSIBLY INTO THE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY. MODELS DO INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE SCATTERED
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS, THOUGH ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL
EXACERBATE THE ONGOING FLOODING. BECAUSE OF HOW SATURATED SOILS
ARE, EVEN RATES OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
TRIGGER FLASH FLOODING THAT WILL AGAIN RAPIDLY ACCUMULATE INTO
CREEKS, RIVERS AND ARROYOS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE SHOULD BE A DECLINE IN ACTIVITY FRIDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IN WEST TEXAS WEAKENS. HOWEVER, ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL STILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY SO AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY,
PARTICULARLY OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
DURING THE DAY OR OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SAFETY MESSAGING:
RIVERS, CREEKS, AND ARROYOS CAN RISE SUDDENLY AND RAPIDLY! LOCALLY
DRY CONDITIONS NEAR CREEKS AND RIVERS SHOULD NOT BE TREATED AS A
GUARANTEE OF YOUR SAFETY! NORMALLY DRY AREAS CAN FLOOD IN THESE
CONDITIONS. HEED WARNINGS, INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL AND COUNTY
OFFICIALS, AND AVOID UNNECESSARY TRAVEL. FLASH FLOODING CAN BE
IMPOSSIBLE TO SPOT AT NIGHT. AVOID FLOODED ROADWAYS. CONDITIONS CAN
CHANGE DRASTICALLY AND SUDDENLY. HAVE MULTIPLE RELIABLE WAYS TO
RECEIVE WARNINGS AND INFORMATION FROM LOCAL/STATE OFFICIALS BOTH IN
THE DAYTIME AND AT NIGHT. IF YOU ARE IN A LOW-LYING LOCATION OR NEAR
A STREAM, HAVE A PLAN AND HAVE A ROUTE TO REACH HIGHER GROUND IF
NEEDED.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES STEADILY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 90S FOR ALMOST
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY TUESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND 100 TO 105 DEGREES
FOR A MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
VCSH THE REST OF THE NIGHT FOR MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KDRT
WHICH WILL SEE SOME LINGERING VCTS THE REST OF TONIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SE AROUND
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWER
CEILINGS IS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 91 76 92 75 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 91 76 92 75 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 90 75 91 74 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 73 90 72 / 10 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 88 75 90 75 / 40 20 0 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 90 75 92 74 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 88 74 90 73 / 10 10 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 90 75 92 74 / 10 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 91 76 92 75 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 89 76 90 75 / 0 10 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 90 76 91 75 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR TXZ171-183>190-202>204-
217>219-228.
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...MFL
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