753
FXUS64 KEWX 180001
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
701 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 642 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
- THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING HAS ENDED FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS.
- REMAINING FLOODWATERS CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM IN THE NUECES,
FRIO, SAN ANTONIO, LLANO, AND RIO GRANDE BASINS. AVOID FLOODED
AREAS.
- DRY AND WARM WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
AT LONG LAST, THE TORRENTIAL RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS
COMING TO A CLOSE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THAT SAID, RISES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM MANY OF THE REGION'S SWOLLEN RIVERS,
INCLUDING CIBOLO CREEK, LLANO RIVER, NUECES RIVER, FRIO RIVER, AND
THE RIO GRANDE. SOME IMPACTS FROM ELEVATED RISES WILL BE SEEN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR SOME RIVERINE AREAS AS FLOODWATERS GRADUALLY
DISPERSE OR SPREAD ACROSS FLOODPLAINS. AVOID FLOODED AREAS AND DO
NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADS.
THE ORGANIZED MID-LEVEL FEATURE THAT TRIGGERED MCV DEVELOPMENT AND
BROUGHT SEVERAL DAYS OF EXTREME RAINFALL TO OUR REGION IS DRIFTING
NORTH INTO THE TEXAS HIGH PLAINS, AWAY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME SUNNIER OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
AREA. DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
AS AN APPROACHING RIDGE OVER THE GULF PULLS STABLE SAHARAN AIR. THAT
SHOULD CALM THE WEATHER DOWN ENTERING THE WEEKEND. A RESIDUAL INFLUX
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WITH MUCH WEAKER AND
MARGINALLY MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT COULD STILL BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WEAK AND RAIN CHANCES
ARE VERY LOW (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT). BROADER MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS
EXPECTED TO CHURN UP A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST TEXAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT THE CHANCE OF THESE REACHING RURAL PORTIONS
OF WESTERN/NORTHERN VAL VERDE COUNTY SATURDAY EVENING IS QUITE LOW.
PLENTY OF HIGH CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO SWIRL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE OUTGOING DISTURBANCE, BUT THE SUN
SHOULD STILL SHINE THROUGH WITH HIGHS REACHING A MIXED BAG OF UPPER
80S AND LOW 90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH UPPER 90S CLOSER TO SOUTH
TEXAS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
THE STRENGTHENING OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER OUR AREA WILL SET THE
TUNE FOR HOT AND DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGING WILL BE MORE
EVIDENT AT LOW-LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY, BUT BY MIDWEEK THE RIDGING
OVER OUR AREA WILL BE DEEP THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE AS THE DOMINANT
RIDGE PREVIOUSLY OVER THE ROCKIES SINKS SOUTH TO OUR AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB DURING THE WEEK. THE SURFACE WINDS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO BE SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE WEEK, WHICH COULD
MODERATE DRY BULB AIR TEMPERATURES. NONETHELESS, THE STRONG RIDGE IS
STILL FORECAST TO HELP USHER IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S
BY MIDWEEK. AS HIGHLY SATURATED GROUNDS AND VEGETATION BASKS IN THE
SUMMERTIME TEXAS SUN, WE DO ANTICIPATE SOME HIGHER DEW POINTS DURING
THE WEEK. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RAISE HEAT INDICES INTO THE TRIPLE
DIGITS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT MILDLY IN THE 70S.
RAIN CHANCES STAY NEGLIGIBLE NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN
FORECAST, BUT A FEW SEABREEZE SHOWERS COULD TRICKLE INTO THE COASTAL
PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
A FEW ELEVATED ECHOES OF PROBABLY VIRGA MIGHT DRIFT BY DRT THIS
EVENING, BUT THE AIR HAS STABILIZED IN THE WAKE OF THE WESTWARD
MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE. VFR SKIES AND A MODERATE S/SE WIND THAT
COULD GUST OVER 20 KNOTS WILL CLOSE OUT THE EVENING SKIES. AFTER
MIDNIGHT, MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER SAT, AND THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH GROUND MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT FOG OR IFR
CIGS. WE'LL KEEP TO A MVFR CIG BUT SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF CIGS
APPROACHING IFR IN A TEMPO OVER DRT AFTER DAYBREAK. VFR SKIES
RETURN TO ALL AREAS BY 18Z SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 93 75 95 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 76 93 75 94 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 75 93 74 94 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 91 73 94 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 75 90 76 92 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 92 74 94 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 91 74 93 / 10 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 75 93 74 94 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 93 75 95 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 92 75 93 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 93 76 94 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...18
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