811
FXUS64 KEWX 312311
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
611 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 605 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
- HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.
- A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY.
- HOT AND DRY WEATHER PERSISTS INTO EARLY AUGUST.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
MID-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO SHIFT WEST TODAY EVENTUALLY MAKING
WAY FOR A TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SENDING A WEAK FRONT
OUR WAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE REGARDING FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND ANY
POTENTIAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MOST GUIDANCE BRINGS
THIS FEATURE INTO OUR AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING
GIVING HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT, THOUGH IF
THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND ARRIVES LATER THERE MAY BE LESS COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.5-1.25
INCHES WITH ANY ACTIVITY, THOUGH SOME ISOLATED POCKETS ABOVE 2
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL BE MOVING WITH THE FRONT SO A
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION IS EXPECTED, THOUGH THE FEATURE MAY STALL
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SOUTHERN BOARDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING.
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE AN
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WHICH IS HIGHLIGHTED BY HIGH SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TOMORROW. THERE COULD BE A SPIKE IN
TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDICES BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES BUT GREATER
CONSENSUS INDICATES A SEASONABLY HOT DAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES JUST
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE IS SEEN SUNDAY THOUGH DRIER AIR AND A
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND WILL HELP KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THEN EXTENDS BACK
OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK FAVORING A DRY PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW REESTABLISHES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN UPTICK IN
HEAT INDICES EXPECTED. CONTINUE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY AND STAY
COOL AND HYDRATED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR
TONIGHT, SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP BUT MAJORITY WILL BE TO THE
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WOULDN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF MVFR THOUGH
ACROSS THE I-35 SITES. OTHERWISE, EXPECT FOR INCREASING MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH INTO AND THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL
HELP PROVIDE A SCATTERED CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A RESULT, PROB30 GROUPS FOR -TSRA ARE
IN PLACE AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES WITH KAUS COMING IN EARLIEST AT
18Z FOLLOWED A LITTLE LATER ARRIVAL TIMES FOR KSAT, KSSF, AND
KDRT. AROUND ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS, GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE OCCUR ALONG WITH BRIEF FLIGHT CATEGORIES REDUCTIONS, BUT
CONFIDENCE ON IMPACTS OR TIMING IS TOO LOW TO INSERT WITHIN THE
TAF PACKAGE. OTHERWISE, THE WINDS OUTSIDE OF THESE CONVECTIVE
INFLUENCES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 98 77 100 / 0 30 10 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 98 77 100 / 0 30 10 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 75 98 77 100 / 0 30 20 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 75 96 74 98 / 0 30 20 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 99 77 100 / 0 10 20 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 77 98 75 99 / 10 30 10 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 97 76 98 / 0 20 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 75 99 77 100 / 0 30 20 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 98 77 99 / 0 20 20 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 98 78 99 / 0 30 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 77 99 79 100 / 0 20 20 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...62
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