712
FXUS64 KEWX 010531
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1231 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1226 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
- HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.
- A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY.
- HOT AND DRY WEATHER PERSISTS INTO EARLY AUGUST.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
MID-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO SHIFT WEST TODAY EVENTUALLY MAKING
WAY FOR A TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SENDING A WEAK FRONT
OUR WAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE REGARDING FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND ANY
POTENTIAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MOST GUIDANCE BRINGS
THIS FEATURE INTO OUR AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING
GIVING HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT, THOUGH IF
THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND ARRIVES LATER THERE MAY BE LESS COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.5-1.25
INCHES WITH ANY ACTIVITY, THOUGH SOME ISOLATED POCKETS ABOVE 2
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL BE MOVING WITH THE FRONT SO A
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION IS EXPECTED, THOUGH THE FEATURE MAY STALL
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SOUTHERN BOARDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING.
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE AN
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WHICH IS HIGHLIGHTED BY HIGH SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TOMORROW. THERE COULD BE A SPIKE IN
TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDICES BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES BUT GREATER
CONSENSUS INDICATES A SEASONABLY HOT DAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES JUST
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE IS SEEN SUNDAY THOUGH DRIER AIR AND A
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND WILL HELP KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THEN EXTENDS BACK
OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK FAVORING A DRY PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW REESTABLISHES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN UPTICK IN
HEAT INDICES EXPECTED. CONTINUE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY AND STAY
COOL AND HYDRATED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
A FEW CHANGES WERE MADE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT IT'S VERY
SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS USED FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. OPTED TO ADD A
TEMPO FOR SHOWERS AT AUS THIS MORNING AS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A
BIT WETTER THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. THE AFTERNOON PROB30S AT
AUS, SAT, AND SSF HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED, BUT A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED
AT DRT AS CONFIDENCE IN STORMS INCREASES FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTERLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 96 77 101 76 / 30 10 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 98 78 101 76 / 20 20 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 98 78 100 76 / 20 20 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 95 74 99 72 / 30 10 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 99 77 101 77 / 10 30 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 97 75 99 75 / 30 10 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 98 76 100 75 / 20 30 10 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 99 77 101 75 / 20 20 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 99 78 101 76 / 20 20 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 99 80 101 78 / 20 30 10 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 99 80 101 78 / 20 20 10 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...MMM
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