392
FXUS64 KEWX 011048
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
548 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 522 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
- A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED STORMS MAY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
- HOT AND DRY WEATHER RESUMES SUNDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WHILE HOT AND DRY HAS BEEN THE TALE OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEATHER
FOR THE PAST WEEK, WE WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT GEARS TODAY AS A WEAK FRONT
ENTERS OUR REGION AND BRINGS A MEDIUM CHANCE (30 TO 60 PERCENT) FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
FRONTAL SURFACE APPEARS TO BE TILTED SOUTHWARD WITH HEIGHT. AN
INITIAL BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE AUSTIN AREA AND
HILL COUNTRY DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS, ACCOMPANYING THE
LEADING PORTION OF THE FRONT ALOFT. AS THE SURFACE PORTION OF THE
FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON, THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SPARK ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT.
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES, A SHIFT IN SURFACE WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND WEST COULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO SPIKE DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT. IF THE FRONT
IS SLOW TO ARRIVE, THE LATE-MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD COULD
HEAT UP A NOTCH FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS BEFORE RAIN-COOLED AIR
REVERSES THAT TREND. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN HEAT INDICES ABOVE
LOCAL CRITERIA, WE'VE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A HEAT ADVISORY
ISSUANCE. THAT SAID, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (AROUND 10 TO 30 PERCENT
BASED ON THE HREF) THAT SOME AREAS FARTHER SOUTH COULD SEE HEAT
INDICES BRIEFLY REACH THE 105-109F RANGE BEFORE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ROLL IN.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES
FAVORING THE EDWARDS PLATEAU, HILL COUNTRY, AND AUSTIN AREA MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY THE SAN ANTONIO AREA AND
PLAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10/US-90 LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. SATELLITE DATA SHOWS A NARROW ZONE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
ABOVE 1.9 INCHES STRADDLING THE FRONT, AND THIS WAS ALSO SAMPLED IN
THE FWD SOUNDING FROM 00Z. THIS COULD SUPPORT A TEMPORARY WINDOW OF
HEAVIER RAIN RATES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO SEE LESS AN INCH OF RAIN, BUT THE STRONGEST
STORMS MAY PRODUCE AROUND 3 INCHES OF RAIN RELATIVELY QUICKLY. THIS
COULD CAUSE ISOLATED AND LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
BASED ON THE ENVIRONMENT, THE HEAVY RAIN RISK IS ROUGHLY UNIFORM
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS, THOUGH RECENT HI-RES MODELS HAVE SHOWN A
SLIGHT TENDENCY FOR PLACING HIGHER TOTALS OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND SOUTHERN FLANKS OF THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT. NORTHERLY WINDS
ALOFT WILL KEEP THE FRONT MOVING STEADILY SOUTH, SO IT IS MORE
LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE JUST A SINGLE ROUND OF STORMS BEFORE DRIER
AIR MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGS THE RAIN TO AN END FOR MOST
SATURDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE HOT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEEP
AND COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 50 MPH FROM THE
STRONGEST STORMS ALONG THE FRONT.
EXPECT A DRYING TREND INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SWITCH FROM QUITE MOIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
MARKEDLY DRY BEHIND IT, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PLUNGING TO
BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE. WHILE THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO CHANGE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES MUCH, THE DRIER AIR WILL
DELIVER A DRIER HEAT WITH LOWER HEAT INDICES THAN WHAT WE'VE SEEN
OVER THE PAST WEEK. THE LESS MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW
HIGHS TO CLIMB A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY CLOSER TO
THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE. THAT SAID, A FEW SPOTS SOUTH OF I-10 IN THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS MAY STILL SEE HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING THE 105-108 RANGE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
DESPITE SATURDAY'S BRIEF SPELL OF RAIN AND THUNDER, THE OUTLOOK FOR
THE WEEK AHEAD REMAINS HOT AND DRY. BY MONDAY, THE LOW-PRESSURE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH SATURDAY'S FRONT WILL MOVE OFF INTO THE EASTERN US,
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN. EXPECT A SLIGHT DELAY BETWEEN THAT
SWITCH AND THE RETURN OF HUMID GULF AIR, GIVING ANOTHER DAY OF
RELATIVELY DRIER HEAT ON MONDAY BEFORE THE REGION RETURNS TO A
REGULAR ROUTINE OF HOT AND HUMID DAYS WITH MUGGY NIGHTS. BY AIR
TEMPERATURE, SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAYS
OF THE WEEK WITH THE AID OF THE DRIER CONDITIONS.
THE ELONGATION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WILL SECURE A
DRY PATTERN FOR THE WEEK AHEAD WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO STAY AROUND THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA, WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. CONTINUE TO PRACTICE HEAT
SAFETY AND STAY COOL AND HYDRATED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
LOW TO MID-LEVEL STRATUS HAVE MOVED IN EARLY THIS MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT DIPS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE
WESTERLY BY MID-MORNING THEN NORTHERLY BY LATER THIS EVENING. A
ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS NOW APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS AT AUS, SAT, AND SSF BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR ALONG WITH
THE CHANCE FOR -SHRA AND -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD TURN
MORE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BY 02Z THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THAT
WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 96 77 101 76 / 30 10 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 98 78 101 76 / 20 20 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 98 78 100 76 / 20 20 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 95 74 99 72 / 30 10 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 99 77 101 77 / 10 30 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 97 75 99 75 / 30 10 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 98 76 100 75 / 20 30 10 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 99 77 101 75 / 20 20 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 99 78 101 76 / 20 20 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 99 80 101 78 / 20 30 10 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 99 80 101 78 / 20 20 10 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...MMM
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