037
FXUS64 KEWX 020635
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
135 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 135 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
- HOT AND MOSTLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- DRIEST AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
A SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH OUTFLOW PROPAGATION
LED TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION
OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST EDWARDS, SOUTHERN REAL,
NORTHERN UVALDE, AND NORTHEASTERN KINNEY COUNTIES. AS FORECASTED, WE
DID PICKUP A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF UP TO 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES ACROSS
THIS REGION WITHIN A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD. MINOR FLOODING NEAR CONCAN
WAS REPORTED WITH A FEW ROAD CLOSURES AND A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN THE
FLOW ON THE FRIO RIVER FROM AROUND 500 CFS TO 1,000 CFS. THIS FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD TODAY. WITH IT'S NEARBY PROXIMITY AND
LINGERING MOISTURE, MAY SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE (10-20%) FOR SHOWERS OR
A STRAY STORM FROM ATASCOSA/DEWITT COUNTIES INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN
MOST GRANDE PLAIN COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
MUCH DRIER AIR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE, WILL OTHERWISE FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN ON THE HREF HAS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES DROPPING INTO THE LOWEST 5 PERCENTILE RANGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THAT DRIER AIR AND THE RETURN OF SUNNIER SKIES SHOULD
HELP DEW POINTS TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR LOCATIONS
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 DURING THIS AFTERNOON. FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON, MOST LOCATIONS SEE DEW POINTS SLIP INTO THE 50S EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN MOST COUNTIES. GIVEN THE DRIER AIR,
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DIP SLIGHTLY, MORE NOTICEABLY ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY. THE AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY AND MONDAY ARE AS HOT OR EVEN A
DEGREE OR TWO HOTTER AS THE DRIER AIR WILL BE EASIER AND MORE
EFFICIENT TO HEAT UP. WE'LL RAISE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE
NATIONAL BLENDED GUIDANCE (NBM) BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE MOS GUIDANCE
WITH IT'S WARM BIAS SO FAR THIS SUMMER ACROSS OUR REGION. WITH THE
DRIER HEAT, PEAK HEAT INDICES ARE NOT BE AS HIGH COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW DAYS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
FEATURES TROUGHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE WHILE RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ELONGATES AND
STRETCHES ACROSS TEXAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SEASONABLY HOT AND
RAIN FREE PATTERN ACROSS OUR LOCAL REGION. DAYTIME HIGHS RANGE IN
THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. LOW-LEVEL DEW POINTS AND CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY CREEP
UPWARDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR, WITH A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE ONSHORE FLOW COMING FROM THE GULF. LATE WEEK
INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND MAY SEE ISOLATED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE CRP/HGX CWAS THAT COULD APPROACH OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
MOST COUNTIES, LIKE LAVACA COUNTY, ELSEWHERE RAIN FREE CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF OPERATIONAL CONCERN. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AT LESS THAN 10
KTS FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT BACK TO EASTERLY WINDS AFTER 00Z MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 101 76 103 76 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 100 73 102 75 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 100 74 101 75 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 98 72 100 73 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 100 77 103 78 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 98 73 101 75 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 98 73 100 74 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 100 74 101 75 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 100 74 102 76 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 100 75 102 77 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 100 76 102 77 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...MMM
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