645
FXUS64 KEWX 030523
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1223 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
- HOT AND MOSTLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
- DRIEST AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
MUCH DRIER HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE WAKE
OF YESTERDAY'S WEAK FRONT. GOES AIRMASS RGB ENHANCEMENT COUPLED WITH
MODELED LAYER THETA-E ANALYSES SHOW THIS DRY AIR STREAMING DOWN FROM
CANADA AND WRAPPING AROUND A BROADER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS IS ALLOWING MOISTURE TO QUICKLY MIX OUT AND
TEMPERATURES TO HEAT EFFICIENTLY, LEADING TO A DRY HEAT TODAY. IN
FACT, THE DEW POINT AS OF 1 PM CDT TODAY HAD ALREADY DROPPED INTO
THE 50S IN THE AUSTIN AREA FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE MID/LATE MAY.
DEW POINTS WILL START TO INCREASE SOME TONIGHT AS WINDS GRADUALLY
TRANSITION BACK INTO SOUTHERLIES, BUT THE DRIER AIR AND
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO
DIP A LITTLE FURTHER INTO THE LOW 70S AND UPPER 60S NORTH OF I-10,
WITH MID 70S ELSEWHERE. SOME PLACES IN THE HILL COUNTRY COULD BE
QUITE COOL BY EARLY AUGUST STANDARDS, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
60S POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE DAWN.
MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A STRONGER DRY HEAT AS DEW POINTS REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW (AROUND THE 10TH PERCENTILE), CONCURRENT WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS QUITE BULLISH REGARDING
HIGHS MONDAY. I AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL THAT WE'LL SEE THE WIDESPREAD
104+ TEMPERATURES THAT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ADVERTISING, GIVEN THE LACK
OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW, BUT THE DRY AIR WILL
NONETHELESS HEAT UP EASILY. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS MONDAY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 103 FOR MOST OF THE AREA, A NOTCH ABOVE THE
NATIONAL BLEND. TRIPLE-DEGREE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD. IT WILL BE QUITE TOASTY MONDAY, BUT AT THE VERY LEAST
THE MODEST DEW POINTS SHOULD KEEP THE HEAT FROM FEELING MUCH
HOTTER.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
AFTER MAKING A BRIEF JAUNT TOWARDS ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA,
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL BOUNCE BACK AND EXTEND EAST OVER OUR AREA
THIS WEEK, ENCOURAGING STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE RETURN OF
HIGHER DEW POINTS. AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY MODERATE SOME INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 90S, BUT THE ADDED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BOOST HEAT
INDICES BACK ABOVE 105 FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR, COASTAL PLAINS, AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE
HOTTEST TIME OF THE YEAR, AND THE HEAT CAN BECOME HAZARDOUS IF
ADEQUATE STEPS ARE NOT TAKEN TO STAY COOL AND HYDRATED. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL STICK AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RESTORE THE TYPICAL CYCLE OF MORNING
CLOUDINESS BREAKING INTO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOONS, BUT THE OVERHEAD
RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER RAIN FREE FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK. LATER IN THE WEEK, A BROAD TROUGH SWINGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF CONUS, WHICH RESULTS IN A SLIGHT
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGING. WHILE THERE ARE NO CLEAR CUT DISTURBANCES
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME, THIS SLIGHT WEAKNESS COULD PROVIDE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN ISOLATED SEABREEZE-RELATED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY
THURSDAY ONWARDS. THESE LOW RAIN CHANCES (AROUND 20 PERCENT AT BEST)
MAINLY INVOLVE THE COASTAL PLAINS, BUT IF THE WEAKNESS OPENS UP
FURTHER, A FEW SHOWERS COULD PUSH FARTHER INLAND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS VFR CIGS AND LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND BUMP UP TO
5-10 KTS. OTHERWISE, CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY IS
EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 102 76 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 102 76 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 101 75 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 101 73 97 73 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 101 77 99 78 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 101 75 98 76 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 100 75 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 101 75 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 102 76 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 101 76 99 77 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 101 77 99 77 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...MMM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page