885
FXUS64 KEWX 031043
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
543 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 514 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
- AREA OF DRIER AIR YIELDS TO THE HOTTEST AMBIENT TEMPERATURES OF
THE WEEK TODAY.
- RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTS IN THE MORE TYPICAL AUGUST
HEAT, HUMIDITY, AND A MOSTLY RAIN FREE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
DRIER AIR PERSISTS INTO AND THROUGH TODAY WITH NOT MUCH NOCTURNAL
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED INTO THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT, SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY TO COMPLETELY CLEAR INTO TONIGHT. WITH THE
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT YESTERDAY, THERE WAS SOME
LIGHT HAZINESS IN THE SKY FROM LINGERING SUSPENDED SMOKE PARTICLES
ALOFT COMING FROM THE FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE EASTERLY TODAY AND
THIS WOULD HELP TO REDUCE THE HAZINESS TODAY WITH A LITTLE MORE
DISPERSION OF THE SMOKE WITH A DIFFERENT PREVAILING FLOW AWAY FROM
THE SOURCE REGION. UNDER SUNNY CONDITIONS AND THE DRIER AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS, TEMPERATURES EFFICIENTLY WARM UP WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 100 TO 103 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE
USUAL COOLER LOCATIONS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. AS STATED WITHIN LAST NIGHT'S DISCUSSION, I WILL FORECAST
ABOVE THE NBM FORECAST HIGHS BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE MOS GUIDANCE,
WHICH HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW A WARM BIAS THIS SUMMER ACROSS OUR
REGION. PEAK HEAT INDICES WITH THE LESS HUMID DEW POINTS SHOULD
MAINTAIN NEAR THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURES. THE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY OFF THE GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SLOWLY CREEP UPWARDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR, AND ALLOW FOR RETURNED DEVELOPMENT FOR
SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TREND A
LITTLE LOWER TUESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY BUT THE HEAT INDICES WILL
LIKELY TREND SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER COMPARED TO TODAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
A PERSISTENT TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR REST OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST ELONGATES, ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT RISE IN 500 MB
HEIGHTS LOCALLY ACROSS OUR REGION. THE LOW-LEVEL PATTERN WITH WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY OFF THE GULF. THIS ALLOWS THE
DEW POINTS TO RETURN TO WHAT WE ARE USED TO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND THE TYPICAL CYCLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS EACH MORNING
BREAKING INTO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. MAJORITY REMAIN
RAIN FREE FOR THE PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES, WHERE AN ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWER AND/OR
STORM MAY BE ABLE TO REACH INTO DURING ANY OF THE AFTERNOONS FROM
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND AS ONE WOULD
EXPECT FOR THE HOTTEST TIME OF THE YEAR FEATURING HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S WITH HIGHER PEAK HEAT INDICES UP TO AS HIGH AS 107
DEGREES WHILE THE OVERNIGHT LOWS RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH VFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AT AROUND 5-10 KTS.
A SHIFT BACK TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED AT AUS.
MEANWHILE, AT DRT, A SHIFT TO MORE EASTERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED
AFTER 03Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 102 76 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 102 76 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 101 75 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 101 73 97 73 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 101 77 99 78 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 101 75 98 76 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 100 75 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 101 75 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 102 76 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 101 76 99 77 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 101 77 99 77 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...MMM
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