336
FXUS64 KEWX 031721
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1221 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1221 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
- AREA OF DRIER AIR YIELDS TO THE HOTTEST AMBIENT TEMPERATURES OF
THE WEEK TODAY.
- RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTS IN THE MORE TYPICAL AUGUST
HEAT, HUMIDITY, AND A MOSTLY RAIN FREE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
DRIER AIR PERSISTS INTO AND THROUGH TODAY WITH NOT MUCH NOCTURNAL
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED INTO THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT, SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY TO COMPLETELY CLEAR INTO TONIGHT. WITH THE
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT YESTERDAY, THERE WAS SOME
LIGHT HAZINESS IN THE SKY FROM LINGERING SUSPENDED SMOKE PARTICLES
ALOFT COMING FROM THE FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE EASTERLY TODAY AND
THIS WOULD HELP TO REDUCE THE HAZINESS TODAY WITH A LITTLE MORE
DISPERSION OF THE SMOKE WITH A DIFFERENT PREVAILING FLOW AWAY FROM
THE SOURCE REGION. UNDER SUNNY CONDITIONS AND THE DRIER AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS, TEMPERATURES EFFICIENTLY WARM UP WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 100 TO 103 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE
USUAL COOLER LOCATIONS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. AS STATED WITHIN LAST NIGHT'S DISCUSSION, I WILL FORECAST
ABOVE THE NBM FORECAST HIGHS BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE MOS GUIDANCE,
WHICH HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW A WARM BIAS THIS SUMMER ACROSS OUR
REGION. PEAK HEAT INDICES WITH THE LESS HUMID DEW POINTS SHOULD
MAINTAIN NEAR THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURES. THE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY OFF THE GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SLOWLY CREEP UPWARDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR, AND ALLOW FOR RETURNED DEVELOPMENT FOR
SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TREND A
LITTLE LOWER TUESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY BUT THE HEAT INDICES WILL
LIKELY TREND SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER COMPARED TO TODAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
A PERSISTENT TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR REST OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST ELONGATES, ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT RISE IN 500 MB
HEIGHTS LOCALLY ACROSS OUR REGION. THE LOW-LEVEL PATTERN WITH WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY OFF THE GULF. THIS ALLOWS THE
DEW POINTS TO RETURN TO WHAT WE ARE USED TO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND THE TYPICAL CYCLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS EACH MORNING
BREAKING INTO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. MAJORITY REMAIN
RAIN FREE FOR THE PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES, WHERE AN ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWER AND/OR
STORM MAY BE ABLE TO REACH INTO DURING ANY OF THE AFTERNOONS FROM
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND AS ONE WOULD
EXPECT FOR THE HOTTEST TIME OF THE YEAR FEATURING HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S WITH HIGHER PEAK HEAT INDICES UP TO AS HIGH AS 107
DEGREES WHILE THE OVERNIGHT LOWS RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
STEADY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH PREVAILING 6-12 KT SOUTHEAST FLOW UNDER FEW/SCT MIDLEVEL
CUMULUS. EXPECT THE TYPICAL TEMPORARY INCREASE IN WINDS WITH THE
SEABREEZE AT KSAT/KSSF BETWEEN 01Z-04Z. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TONIGHT
IS FORECAST TO BRING SOME RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CIGS AT TERMINALS. FOR NOW, HAVE
INTRODUCED MENTIONS OF FEW/SCT IN THE TAFS FOR THE EARLY MORNING
AT FL010-FL020 AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 99 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 76 99 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 75 99 75 99 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 97 74 97 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 99 78 99 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 98 76 98 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 97 75 97 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 76 100 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 99 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 99 77 98 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 77 100 77 99 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...TRAN
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