648
FXUS64 KEWX 040624
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
124 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 123 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
- THE EARLY TO MID AUGUST HEAT IS FORECAST TO STAY ON PAR WITH
WHAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE HOTTEST TIME OF
THE YEAR ACROSS OUR REGION.
- MOSTLY RAIN FREE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LOW (10-25%) CHANCE OF
A SEA BREEZE SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THIS PAST WEEKEND NOW ERODES AWAY AS
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SLOWLY UPTICKS INTO THE MORE
MODERATE RANGE, USHERING IN THE RETURN OF SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO HELP TO
BEGIN THE RETURNING CYCLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW
CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ESCARPMENT, THAT THEN MIX OUT INTO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON. A FEW SHORT TERM MEMBERS DO SHOW
A VERY LOW (5-10%) CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
FAVORING WEST TO SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO. OTHERWISE, NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME SLIGHT HAZINESS
WITH THE MILKY SKY LOOK THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF
SOME SUSPENDED SMOKE PARTICLES OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FIRES AND
THE ARRIVAL OF A LIGHT PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN CLOSER TO AVERAGE, AS A PRODUCT
OF THE LESS DRY AIR, IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, THE PEAK
HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN SIMILAR OR A FEW DEGREES HIGHER WITH THE
GREATER HUMIDITY. HEAT INDICES OUTSIDE OF THE HILL COUNTRY COULD
REACH 103 TO 108 DEGREES BOTH THIS AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
OVERNIGHTS WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH LOWS THAT MAINLY BOTTOM
OUT IN THE MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
A HOT AND MOSTLY RAIN FREE FORECAST REMAINS PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORKWEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL RIDGING
CENTERED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BRIDGE THROUGH
TEXAS AS IT CONNECTS WITH ANOTHER RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS FLORIDA
THAT WOULD EXTEND INTO THE GULF. THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR, SLIGHTLY
DEEPENS AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW. THE MOISTURE AND WIND PATTERN IS ENOUGH
TO WHERE WE'LL HIGHLIGHT A LOW (10-25%) CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THAT MAY TRY TO ENTER OUR
SOUTHEASTERN MOST COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES, BEGINNING THURSDAY. RAIN
FREE CONDITIONS PRIMARILY PREVAIL ELSEWHERE DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. SEASONABLE HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION BUT AFTERNOON
HIGHS MAY SHAVE OFF A FEW MORE DEGREES AS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
BECOMES SLIGHTLY DEEPER. HOWEVER, EXPECT FOR THOSE HEAT INDICES TO
NOT BUDGE AT ALL AND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED CLOSE TO OR JUST SHY OF
THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. DON'T FORGET YOUR HEAT SAFETY. WARM
OVERNIGHT LOWS, GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S, WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS FROM LATE NIGHT INTO EACH MORNING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 07Z TONIGHT, BUT SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED, RESULTING IN AT LEAST ONE MORE NIGHT OF VFR CEILINGS.
WINDS HAVE BEEN ON THE BREEZY SIDE THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN SO
THROUGH AROUND 10Z BEFORE DROPPING OFF A BIT. WINDS RETURN TO
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20+ KTS AT TIMES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH VFR CEILINGS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 100 77 99 77 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 100 76 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 99 76 98 76 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 98 75 96 75 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 99 78 98 78 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 99 77 98 76 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 97 76 97 75 / 10 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 100 76 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 99 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 98 78 98 77 / 10 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 99 78 99 77 / 10 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...MMM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page