395
FXUS64 KEWX 050522
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1222 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1212 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
- HOT AND DRY FOR THE MOST PART FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR A STORM OR TWO CAN'T
BE RULED OUT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. A FEW SPOTS COULD REACH 108 TO 110 HEAT
INDEX VALUES FOR A FEW HOURS. STAY HYDRATED.
- CONTINUED DRY WEATHER OVERALL WITH TYPICALLY AUGUST DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND UP TO 100-104 RANGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. CAN'T RULE OUT
A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS IN
THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE FORMATION AND AS IT
TRACKS INLAND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES AS OF 12:30 PM CDT, ARE SHOWING CUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, SOME OF THESE CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TO GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BY LATE AFTERNOON, CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST.
HIRES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN A STORM OR TWO
DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND PARTS OF THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING (WHERE A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET OVER THIS AREA MAY HELP THIS ACTIVITY). SO,
I WENT AHEAD AND ADDED LOW POPS TO COVER THAT PROBABILITY. WHEN
LOOKING AT THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THEY SHOW AN INVERTED
V-SHAPED SUGGESTING MID LEVEL DRY AIR DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH
DCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG. IF A STORM MANAGES TO DEVELOP UNDER
THIS ENVIRONMENT, STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR SO COULD OCCUR
ALONG WITH A HEAVY DOWNPOUR. THEN LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, CLOUDS DEVELOP THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
UPPER 70S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S ALONG AND EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK AND SOME MODELS SHOWING PATCHY FOG FOR
FEW HOURS, I WENT WITH IT.
CLOUDS DISSIPATE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS PROJECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST AREAS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND UP TO 103 OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. WEDNESDAY'S UPPER LEVEL SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR
A RAIN-FREE DAY, HOWEVER, A FEW SEABREEZE SHOWERS ALONG THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST IS A GOOD BET.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
CONTINUED DRY AND HOT FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE KEEPS THE CONTROL OF THE
LOCAL WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A STORM OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAINS INCLUDING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 77 EACH
AFTERNOON FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STRONGER SEABREEZE
FORMS AND DEVELOPS CONVECTION ALONG IT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
HAVE KEPT THINGS MOSTLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO INTRODUCE A TEMPO AT AUS FOR MVFR CEILINGS
BETWEEN 12-15Z AS HREF GUIDANCE INDICATES A 40-60% CHANCE FOR MVFR
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, WHEREAS AT SAT AND SSF, IT IS GREATER THAN
A 90% CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS UNCHANGED OTHER THAN SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO WIND SPEEDS
AND GUSTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 98 77 97 77 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 99 77 98 77 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 99 76 98 76 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 96 73 96 73 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 99 78 100 78 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 97 76 97 76 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 97 75 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 99 76 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 98 76 97 76 / 0 0 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 98 77 98 77 / 0 0 0 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 100 77 99 77 / 10 0 0 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...MMM
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