441
FXUS64 KEWX 051045
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
545 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 536 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
- CONTINUED HOT AND DRY FOR MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS.
- A FEW SPOTS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS COULD REACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON.
- THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER AZ/NM THIS EVENING WITH WEAK
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER TEXAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF IS
PRODUCING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE AIRMASS OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS HOT AND MOIST, ALTHOUGH IT IS A LITTLE
BIT COOLER AND A LITTLE BIT MOISTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. IN THE SHORT
TERM THE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DRIFT TO THE NORTH.
TODAY THAT WILL HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON OUR WEATHER. EXPECT ANOTHER
HOT AND DRY DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE SAME AS TUESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY MAY BRING A FEW SPOTS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS TO HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS, BUT WE
DON'T EXPECT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY. WE HAVE KEPT RAIN
OUT OF THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. AS THE UPPER
HIGH MOVES A LITTLE FARTHER AWAY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR HEIGHT FALLS OVER TEXAS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. STILL MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY. SOME INCREASE IN HUMIDITY MAY ALLOW FOR
WIDER COVERAGE OF HIGH HEAT INDICES AND POSSIBLY THE NEED FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FAIRLY STAGNANT FORECAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY HOT AND NEAR NORMAL EACH DAY FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER A FEW SPOTS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS
COULD BRIEFLY REACH CRITERIA EACH AFTERNOON. WITH UPPER RIDGE
FARTHER NORTH A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS EACH AFTERNOON. IF ANY PLACE GETS ANY RAIN, IT WILL
BE LUCKY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
MVFR STRATUS HAS FORMED THIS MORNING ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND
STRETCHING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ESCARPMENT.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO
VFR CEILINGS AND A HOT/DRY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD GET BREEZY AT TIMES,
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KTS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY AT DRT. HAVE
INTRODUCED MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN FOR TOMORROW MORNING AS HREF
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT (>70%) FOR CEILINGS <2K FEET AT AUS,
SAT, AND SSF TOMORROW MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 98 77 97 77 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 99 77 98 77 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 99 76 98 76 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 96 73 96 73 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 99 78 100 78 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 97 76 97 76 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 97 75 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 99 76 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 98 76 97 76 / 0 0 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 98 77 98 77 / 0 0 0 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 100 77 99 77 / 10 0 0 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...MMM
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