793
FXUS64 KEWX 072201
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
501 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 457 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
- TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
- MOST AREAS REMAIN DRY, WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IN AND NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS REGION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 457 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND THE NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY IS FARTHER
INLAND THEN WE HAD PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, SO WE HAVE ADDED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS REGION EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CONTINUED HEATING, WE EXPECT SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. WE DID OPT TO EXPAND
RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE FARTHER WEST ACROSS GONZALES COUNTY AND INTO
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF GUADALUPE AND WILSON COUNTIES BASED ON
RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE. WHILE SOME OF THE HI-RES MEMBERS SHOW
CONVECTION APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR, WE HAVE HELD OFF ON
EXPANDING RAIN CHANCES INTO THE MENTIONED REGION AT THIS TIME.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS AND ADJUST THE
FORECAST AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE, EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS APPROACHING HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 108 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
THE WEATHER PATTERN FAVORS TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK. IN ADDITION, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK, MID-LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTH TEXAS LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS AND SEE IF ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH SENDS ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SOUTHWARD. AT
THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION ANY RAIN CHANCES FOR
OUR NORTHERN AREAS (HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF
AUSTIN). ALSO, WE CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS REGION AND MAY NEED TO ADD SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
THIS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO SLOWLY INCH UPWARD, ESPECIALLY AS WE HEAD
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE COULD SEE SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES
NUDGE UPWARD TOWARD THE 108 DEGREE MARK FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF I-35 POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS MOS GUIDANCE AGREE IN SHOWING HIGHS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MUCH OF THE MID TO LATE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS MID AND UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF BUILDS INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LOCAL AREA TERMINALS THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR HIGHER
GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA
BREEZE OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO THE 14Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME ON SATURDAY MAINLY FOR THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, CONFIDENT IS ON THE LOW END (LESS THAN 20) FOR
AUSTIN, BUT BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR THE SAN ANTONIO AREA
AIRPORTS. FOR KDRT, VFR CIGS ARE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE CYCLE.
LOW CLOUDS LIFT MID MORNING ON SATURDAY GIVING WAY TO VFR SKIES
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT PERSISTS FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS. ANY SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS STAYS TO THE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 75 97 76 97 / 20 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 75 97 76 97 / 20 0 0 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 97 75 97 / 20 0 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 95 74 95 / 10 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 98 77 98 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 97 75 96 / 20 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 96 73 96 / 10 0 10 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 97 75 97 / 20 0 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 96 76 95 / 20 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 96 76 96 / 10 0 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 97 76 98 / 10 0 10 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...05
SHORT TERM...PLATT
LONG TERM....PLATT
AVIATION...17
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