485
FXUS64 KEWX 220516
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1216 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1204 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY,
I-35 CORRIDOR, AND COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY.
- BRIEF AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
- AUGUST HEAT WAVE CONTINUES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN OR HEAT
RELIEF IN SIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
THE FORECAST HAS LONG CALLED FOR A HOT WEEKEND AND IT THAT WON'T
BE CHANGING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS STEADY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY, I-35
CORRIDOR, AND COASTAL PLAINS. FOR THESE AREAS, HIGH TEMPERATURES
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 102F TO
105F RANGE WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO ABOUT 109F. THESE CONDITIONS
CAN BECOME DANGEROUS IF ADEQUATE STEPS ARE NOT TAKEN TO STAY COOL
AND HYDRATED. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREAS, PROVIDING MEAGER RELIEF.
WHILE THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY WITH A PATCH
OF MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER EXTENDING FROM WEST TEXAS INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF, THE WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE NEARBY UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL HELP PUSH A ZONE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE
STRADDLING A BAROCLINIC ZONE ALOFT NEAR OUR REGION TODAY. THE
SLIGHT RISE IN MOISTURE RESULTS IN CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE
LATEST HREF TO BE SUBTLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO FRIDAY,
RANGING GENERALLY BETWEEN 100-103F. THIS IMPLIES DAYTIME HEATING
ALONE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SPARK A FEW ISOLATED AND GUSTY SHOWER
OR EVEN A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
ON THE LOW SIDE (15 TO 20 PERCENT) AND FOCUSED OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY TO AUSTIN METRO AREA, BUT IS DEPICTED IN SOME OF THE HI-
RES MODELS. ANY SHOWER WOULD LIKELY BE BRIEF, BUT THE ACCOMPANYING
GUSTINESS AND RAIN COULD BRING TEMPORARY RESPITE FROM THE HEAT.
THE BAROCLINIC SUPPORT IS LOWER FOR SUNDAY, SO CHANCES LOOK LOWER
FOR THIS TYPE OF ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
THE HEAT WAVE WON'T BE GOING AWAY ANYTIME SOON. WITHOUT ANY
NOTABLE AMPLIFICATION OF THE JET STREAM TO ITS NORTH, THE STRONG
RIDGE KEEPING OUR HOT AIRMASS IN PLACE DOESN'T HAVE ANY TRAVEL
PLANS THIS UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
NEAR OR OVER 100F EACH DAY, WITH ONLY SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS DAY TO
DAY. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE SCALES TIP TOWARDS ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORY EXTENSIONS/ISSUANCES OR NOT, THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE
SUMMER HEAT CONTINUES.
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AS SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE PREVENTS
SHOWER FORMATION, THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SHOWERS TO SNEAK INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AS THE TAIL END OF A
DECAYING FRONT BRUSHES THE AREA. OTHERWISE, THE CURRENT WEATHER
PATTERN OFFERS SLIM PICKINGS FOR RAIN THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING BUT
FLIGHT IMPACTS AT THE AREA TERMINALS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. THERE
WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING LATER TODAY AND COULD CONTINUE
TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION AT TIMES INTO SUNDAY. THIS AFTERNOON
FEATURES A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. KAUS COULD POSSIBLY SEE SOMETHING
APPROACH BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INSERT ANY MENTION IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS JUST AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 105 80 104 79 / 20 10 10 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 104 79 103 78 / 20 10 10 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 102 77 103 76 / 10 0 10 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 102 77 102 76 / 20 10 10 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 104 78 104 77 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 103 80 103 79 / 20 10 10 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 101 75 102 74 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 103 77 102 76 / 10 10 10 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 103 78 103 77 / 20 10 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 102 78 102 77 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 103 77 103 76 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ171>173-191>194-
205>209-220>225.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...62
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