135
FXUS64 KEWX 230522
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1222 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1216 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
- EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
HILL COUNTRY, AUSTIN AREA, AND COASTAL PLAINS.
- POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
DANGEROUS HEAT IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. FORECAST HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE ABOVE 100F FOR NEARLY ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH MAXIMA IN THE 103F TO 107F RANGE FOR MANY AREAS. THE LATEST
PROBABILISTIC BLEND OF MODELS INDICATES AN OVER 70% CHANCE THAT
MANY AREAS STRADDLING THE COLORADO RIVER WILL SEE HIGHS OVER 105F
THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO OUR ACTIVE HEAT
PRODUCTS TO REFLECT THIS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN HEAT POTENTIAL. AN
EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG THE TX-71
CORRIDOR, INCLUDING THE AUSTIN AREA AND EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF
THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE PREEXISTING HEAT ADVISORY WAS ALSO
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL COUNTIES ALONG THE BALCONES
ESCARPMENT INTO THE WINTER GARDEN REGION. FLOW IN THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS SLIGHTLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS COMPARED TO SATURDAY,
WHICH COULD NUDGE TEMPERATURES HIGHER. MOISTURE MIXING MAY BE
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE SUNDAY GIVEN THIS ORIENTATION BUT WILL
LIKELY BE TOO MARGINAL TO OFFER MUCH THERMAL RELIEF. WITH THE
NEARBY LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS REMAINING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH,
THE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER BRINGING A SLIGHT
COOLDOWN IS LOW, WITH SMALL CHANCES LESS THAN 20% LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. CONDITIONS WON'T BE VERY DIFFERENT AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WORKWEEK WITH LITTLE DISPLACEMENT OF THE CURRENT
WARM CONTINENTAL AIRMASS, REMAINING HOT AND DRY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK AS STRONG RIDGING STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE WON'T CHANGE MUCH WITH HIGHS STAYING ABOVE 100F FOR MOST
AREAS WITH ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO OF DAY TO DAY VARIATION ACROSS THE
STATISTICAL, CONSENSUS, AND BLENDED MODELS. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUING, HEAT ADVISORY PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS, AND
THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT THE HEAT WAVE COULD REMAIN INTENSE
AFTER MIDWEEK. LATER IN THE WEEK, THE CORE OF THE DOMINANT RIDGE
SLIDES SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST CLOSER TO ARIZONA. THIS COULD PROVIDE
A LITTLE MORE LEEWAY FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TO REACH OUR
AREA THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, BUT THE OVERALL SETUP DOES NOT FAVOR
MUCH LONGEVITY FROM THIS POTENTIAL, AND RAIN CHANCES DURING THAT
STRETCH REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THAT MOSTLY FAVOR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. FEW
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL AROUND OR JUST AFTER
SUNRISE BUT WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY FLIGHT IMPACTS. WINDS REMAIN OF
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST
IN DIRECTION. THE SEA BREEZE AFTER SUNSET COULD HELP TO KICK UP
BREEZES SLIGHTLY FOR THE I-35 TERMINALS (KAUS, KSAT, AND KSSF)
BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 107 79 106 77 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 105 78 104 77 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 104 76 103 74 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 103 76 103 74 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 105 77 104 77 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 105 79 104 77 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 102 74 101 73 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 104 76 103 75 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 105 76 104 77 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 104 77 102 76 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 105 76 104 76 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ171>173-
192>194-208-209-223-225.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
TXZ171>173-192>194-208-209-223-225.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ187-189-190-204-
219.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ191-205>207-
220>222-224.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...62
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